[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081645
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to
01S30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted S of 02N between 28W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of low pressure is analyzed over the western Gulf while a
ridge dominates the eastern part of the basin. Under this weather
pattern, a southerly wind flow prevails. Moist air moving over
colder waters along the northern Gulf is resulting in dense fog
along the Texas coastal waters from Corpus Christi to Galveston,
including the Galveston Bay. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect
until 10 CST. Moderate to fresh return flow with seas in the 3 to
5 ft range is noted W of 86W. Gentle to moderate winds are E of
86W with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over
the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front that is forecast
to move off the Texas coast this afternoon. The front will reach
from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat
evening and will exit the area Sun night while weakening. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front. Conditions will improve Mon and Mon
night as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are off the coast of Colombia as well as in
the Gulf of Honduras where a recent scatterometer pass indicates
SE winds of 20 to 30 kt. Mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range off Colombia and 4 to 6
ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range.
Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are observed across the basin moving westward and producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with the
low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through
Tue night, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Fresh to
locally strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern
Caribbean through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel
and western Cuba late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is in the far NW portion of the discussion area
and extends from 30N70W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Low level
clouds and possible showers are related to the front. A band of
showers and thunderstorms persists ahead of the front and is
currently affecting the waters N of 25N between 60W and 65W. A
surface trough extends from 25N52W to near 15N55W. A few showers
and isolated thunderstorms are near the northern end of the trough
axis. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast
region. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters E of 50W
where the pressure gradient is tighter between a high pressure
center N of the area and lower pressure within the equatorial
trough. Seas in this area are in the 8 to 12 ft range in a mix of
N and NE swell. W of 50W, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of
5 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned frontal boundary
will move across the waters north of 28N through Sat, exiting the
forecast region by early Sat evening. A stronger cold front is
expected to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night.
This front is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba
Sun night and from near 28N55W to the southeastern Bahamas by Mon
night. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to precede this front.
High pressure will build in the wake of this front.

$$
GR
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