[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N17W and 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to
02S38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09S to 06N between
20W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the SE Gulf with earlier scatterometer data indicating the
presence of strong to gusty winds within the line of
thunderstorms. A weak pressure gradient over the region is
supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas over the
western half of the basin. East of 90W, winds are gentle to
moderate from the S and W with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the squall line will move E of the basin later
this morning. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop over the
western half of the Gulf tonight into Thu ahead of the next cold
front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche Sat morning, and from Cape Coral, Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad strong high pressure centered over the north-central
Atlantic extends a ridge to just N of the Caribbean and supports
the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds off the coast of
Colombia and SE winds of the same magnitude over the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere in
the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas basin-wide are slight to
moderate, being the peak seas at 7-8 ft in the south-central
portion of the region.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean through Sun night and in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the SE Caribbean
will reach fresh to strong speeds at night tonight and Thu. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A squall line is moving off the SE Gulf of Mexico this morning,
and its remnants are supporting scattered showers along the
Florida Seaboard and the NE Florida offshore waters. A broad area
of fresh to strong easterly winds prevail from 22N to 30N between
38W and 65W with 8-10 ft seas in NE to E swell. West of 65W, the
presence of a surface ridge and an approaching frontal boundary
from the west supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate seas to 7 ft. Over the E subtropical waters, surface
ridging prevails, but the absence of surface troughing over NW
Africa has resulted in a weaker pressure gradient, and moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas to 7 ft. Over the tropical
Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE to E and seas
are moderate.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
rough seas across the offshore waters N of 20N and east of 65W
will gradually decrease through today. Winds and seas will
increase off NE Florida this morning ahead of the next cold front
forecast to move off the coast of Florida during the evening. The
front will then move eastward across the far northern waters
through Sat, and move E of the area Sun. A second cold front will
come off the coast of NE Florida Sat night and extend from near
Bermuda to central Cuba Sun night.

$$
Ramos
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