[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W, then
curves southwestward to 01N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01N19W to
00N30W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 07S to 05N between 13W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere from 09S to 02N W of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface observations across the northern Gulf waters indicate
reduced visibilities of 3 nm or less due to fog and haze. In
coastal waters, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices have issued
Dense Fog Advisories for visibilities of 1/2 nm or less. Please
visit www.weather.gov for additional information on the Dense Fog
Advisories for coastal waters.

The gradient between lower pressure over the western half of the
Gulf and a weak surface ridge covering the region E of 90W is
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the eastern half of the
basin. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with slight to
moderate seas. Over the northern Gulf, middle level diffluence
supports scattered heavy showers and tstms. An earlier
scatterometer pass indicated gale force SE winds in the region of
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will
prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through this evening.
Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin
tonight through Thu. By Thu night, fresh to strong SE winds will
develop in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast
to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will reach from the
Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico Sat. Otherwise, dense
fog is forecast to affect most of the northern Gulf of Mexico
coastal and NW offshore waters through later this morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic to the northern Caribbean. This ridge combined
with lower pressure over northern Colombia supports a tight
pressure gradient across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades
and 7 to 9 ft seas are in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to
strong trades are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to
6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are
elsewhere, except for light winds and seas in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate
to fresh trade winds forecast for the SE Caribbean will reach
fresh to strong speeds at night Wed and Thu. Otheriwse, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover much of the offshore waters
N of 20N and E of 70W where large NE swell supports 8 to 10 ft
seas. West of 70W to 77W, winds are moderate to fresh from the ESE
and seas are moderate. In the central subtropical Atlantic, a
tighter pressure gradient supports fresh to strong NE to E winds
and 8-11 ft seas. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, winds are
moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are in the 7-8 ft range.
Over the tropical Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to moderate
and seas are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
rough seas to 10 ft across the offshore waters N of 20N and east
of 70W will gradually decrease over much of the area through the
week. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida tonight ahead of
the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed
evening. The front will then slowly move eastward across the far
northern waters through Sat.

$$
Ramos
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