[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure
gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure centered near 37N40W,
and a quasi-stationary surface trough over the central
subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong to near gale-
force NE to E winds and 12 to 14 ft seas from 24N to 31N between
40W and 56W. The dominant wave period is 8 to 10 seconds,
resulting in stepper waves which are particularly dangerous to
smaller vessels. These hazardous marine conditions will persist
across these waters through this evening. Afterward, winds and
seas will gradually decrease through midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then
curves southwestward to 02N21W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N to 02N between 35W and 40W. There is no ITCZ presence
based on the latest analysis, however a surface trough is analyzed
S of the Equator between 21W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Gulf, otherwise,
a fairly benign pressure pattern dominates the basin with mainly
moderate SE winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, highest from the Yucatan
channel northwestward.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will
prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through Tue evening.
Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue
night through Thu. By Thu night, fresh to strong SE winds will
develop in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast
to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will stall over the far
W part of the basin Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic to the northern Caribbean. This ridge combined
with lower pressure over northern Colombia supports a tight
pressure gradient across much of the basin. Fresh to strong winds
and 7 to 10 ft seas are in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh trades are elsewhere, except slightly weaker between 80W
and 85W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft away from the south-central Caribbean,
except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES Section for details about a
central Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
between 60W and 75W, winds are moderate to fresh from the ESE and
seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range, highest E of 65W. A pair of
surface troughs are analyzed over the waters W of 75W, with
scattered thunderstorms present N of 25N between 72W and 77W.
Mainly light to gentle variable winds are present W of 75W, with
5 to 8 ft seas in ESE swell outside of the Bahamas.

The eastern subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of a
surface ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure over NW Africa results in the continuation of fresh to
strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft, reaching as far
south as the Cape Verde Islands. In the tropical Atlantic, trades
are gentle to moderate between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and
moderate to fresh between 20W and 40W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
primarily in NE swell across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas associated with a surface trough over the central subtropical
Atlantic waters will persist across the offshore waters N of 22N
and east of 65W today. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually
decrease over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas
will increase off NE Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold
front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The
front will then move eastward across the northern waters through
the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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