[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040953
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure
gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure centered near 39N45W,
and a quasi-stationary surface trough over the central
subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong to near gale-
force NE to E winds and 12 to 14 ft seas from 24N to 31N between
41W and 57W. The average swell period is 10 seconds, resulting in
stepper waves which are particularly dangerous to smaller
vessels. These hazardous marine conditions will persist across
these waters through this evening. Afterward, winds and seas will
gradually decrease through midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W, then
curves southwestward to 04N21W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen south of the trough from 07S to 07N between 00W and 18W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06S to 03N
between 20W and 40W. There is no ITCZ presence based on the
latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Much of the Gulf is dominated by a weak surface ridge extending
southwestward from Georgia to the central Gulf. This pattern is
resulting in gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas basin-
wide.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will develop over
the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue evening. Gentle to
moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue night
through Thu. By Thu night, fresh to strong SE winds will develop
in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to come
off Texas Fri and stall over the far W basin Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic to the northern Caribbean, thus increasing the
pressure gradient across the basin and resulting in the
continuation of fresh to strong winds off the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the SW Caribbean are 8 to 10
ft and to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean. In the central and eastern
basin, trades are moderate to fresh with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central
Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES Section for details about a
central Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
between 60W and 75W, winds are moderate to fresh from the ESE and
seas are in the 8-11 ft range. West of 75W, winds are light to
gentle in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from
31N76W to Andros Island. The eastern subtropical Atlantic remains
under the influence of a surface ridge. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa results in the
continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10
ft, reaching as far south as the Cape Verde Islands. In the
tropical Atlantic, trades are gentle to moderate between 40W and
the Lesser Antilles, and moderate to fresh between 20W and 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas to 13 ft associated with a surface trough over the central
subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the offshore
waters N of 22N and east of 65W through today. Afterward, winds
and seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the
week. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida Tue night ahead
of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida
Wed evening. The front will extend from near 31N74W to Grand
Bahama late Thu and from Bermuda to near 26N66W Fri morning.

$$
Ramos
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