[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure
gradient between a strong 1039 mb high pressure centered to the
southeast of Nova Scotia, and a quasi-stationary surface trough
over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong
to near gale-force northeast winds and very rough to high seas of
12 to 15 ft north of 24N between 40W and 60W. The average swell
period is 10 seconds, resulting in stepper waves which are
particularly dangerous to smaller vessels. These hazardous marine
conditions will persist across these waters through Mon.
Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease through midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near Bissau in Guinea-
Bissau, then curves southwestward to 03N20W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen south of the trough from 01N to 06N between 10W
and 15W. There is no ITCZ presence based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough curves southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
across the north-central Gulf to the northwestern Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are flaring up south of this feature in
the central Gulf well south of New Orleans. Otherwise, much of the
Gulf is dominated by a surface ridge extending west-southwestward
from central Florida to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present at the south-
central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate ESE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will develop over
the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue evening. Gentle to
moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue night
through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop in the central
Gulf Thu night ahead of the next cold front which will move into
the western Gulf Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N65W to near the central Bahamas. This
feature continue to support a trade-wind regime across the entire
basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers across
the eastern basin, including Puerto Rico and the Windward Islands.
Latest ASCAT satellite altimetery indicates fresh to strong with
locally near-gale NE to ENE winds along with 8 to 10 ft seas at
the south-central basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and just south of
Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are
evident at the lee of Cuba and south of the Windward Passage.
Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge north of the
area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the
south-central basin and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES Section for details about a
central Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

A surface trough runs southward from a 1018 mb low pressure off
the South Carolina coast across 31N77W to the northwest Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to
250 nm east of this feature. At the central Atlantic, a broad
surface trough reaches northward from 21N49W through a 1015 mb low
near 24N48W to 31N46W. Aided by a robust upper-level low near
27N47W, scattered moderate convection is found north of 22N
between 39W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are found
north of 20N between 40W and 76W, including the southeast Bahamas.
Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate
E swell exist to the west, north of 20N between 76W and the
Georgia-Florida coast, including the central and northwest
Bahamas. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally
strong NNE to E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in large N to
NE swell dominate north of 14N between the Africa coast and 40W,
including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical
Atlantic from 05N to 14N/20N between the central Africa coast and
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft
seas in moderate to large NE swell are evident. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and easterly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and very rough
to high seas associated with a surface trough and attendant low
over the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across
the offshore waters east of 60W through Mon. Afterward, winds and
seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the
week. Winds and seas will increase off northeastern Florida by
midweek ahead of the next cold front. The front will move off the
coast of Florida Thu, and extend from near Bermuda to central
Florida Fri.

$$

Chan
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