[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
The tight pressure gradient between a 1038 mb high pressure off
the Mid-Atlantic coast and a 1009 mb Colombian low will sustain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to gale-
force off the northwestern Colombia coast until early Sat morning.
Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds are expected
to reach 9 or 11 ft.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
A 1039 mb high pressure currently off the US Mid-Atlantic coast is
going to slide eastward across the western Atlantic the next few
days. Meanwhile, a persistent surface trough is quasi-stationary
southeast of Bermuda near 27N49W. Tightening gradient between
these two features will introduce strong to near-gale NE winds
north of 24N between 44W and 61W starting after midnight tonight.
The combination of large wind waves and existing northeasterly
swell will cause seas to build and reach 12 to 15 ft by Sat
morning. From late Sat afternoon through Sun, these seas will peak
at 12 to 17 ft. Once the high has moved east of 45W on Sun night,
decreasing gradient should allow both winds and seas to gradually
subside early next week.

Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor this situation
closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning:
A very strong high pressure of 1036 mb is near the western Azores
at 38N30W. A tight gradient between this high and a broad surface
trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force winds
in the Meteo-France Marine Zone of Agadir, near the coast of
Morocco. Earlier satellite altimeter data reveal 10 to 12 ft seas
in the general area. Please read the latest High Seas Warning
issued by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guinea Bissau and Guinea, then extends southwestward across 08N20W
to near 03N28W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from
the Equator to 03N between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extends east-northeastward from a 1014 mb low
at the northwestern Gulf across another 1017 mb low near New
Orleans to beyond the Florida Panhandle. A surface trough runs
southwestward from the 1014 mb low to south of Tampico, Mexico.
Patchy showers are present near and up to 120 nm west and north of
these features. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
south of the frontal boundary from 26N to 28N between the Florida
Big Bend Area and 92W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are noted just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and
across the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and
2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will stall over the northern Gulf
into Sat as the low pressures remain nearly stationary. On Sun,
these lows will gradually lift northeastward, allowing the front
to also lift northward as a warm front. Looking ahead, expect
moderate SE winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern
Gulf Mon into Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and
a new trough over the southwestern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about an on-going Gale
Warning.

A tight gradient between a 1038 mb high pressure off the Mid-
Atlantic coast and a 1008 mb Colombian low sustains a trade-wind
regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh
to strong NE to E winds along with 6 to 9 ft seas are present over
the central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are noted at the northeastern basin, Gulf of Honduras and
both the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate with locally fresh
ENE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate easterly swell are
evident at the southeastern and southwestern basin, and lee of
Cuba. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the above trade-wind pattern will continue
across the basin through Sun. Winds and seas will gradually
diminish from early to midweek next week, except fresh to strong
winds will continue to pulse off Honduras and Colombia at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning on Gale
Winds and Significant Swell.

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N53W to south of Bemuda near 28N68W, then turns
northwestward as a warm front to beyond 31N at 75W. Patchy showers
are seen near and up to 100 nm north of this boundary. A quasi-
stationary surface trough is near 27N49W. Aided by a sharp upper-
level trough in the vicinity, scattered moderate convection is
flaring up north of 22N between 42W and 51W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Other than the Significant Swell area mentioned in the Special
Features section, fresh to strong NE to ESE winds and seas at 8
to 11 ft are evident north of 20N between 53W/57W and the
southeast Bahamas/75W. Moderate to fresh E to SSE winds and 5 to 9
ft seas exist from the central Bahamas northward between 75W and
the Georgia-Florida coast. At the central Atlantic, gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft
in moderate easterly swell dominate north of 20N between 40W and
53W/57W. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NNE to ESE winds
and seas at 9 to 13 ft in large northeasterly swell are found
north of 16N between the Africa coast and 40W, including the
Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N
to 16N/20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate NNE to ENE and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. Gentle
monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
dissipate through early Sat. Expect increasing NE winds and
building seas northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda
into early next week, between high pressure north of the area and
a broad trough between 45W and 51W north of 21N. Looking ahead,
the trough will dissipate and the high pressure will lift to the
northeast, although fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
will persist north of 25N and east of 65W into midweek.

$$

Chan
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