[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low pressure system located
offshore The Carolinas will move E-SE along 30-32N on Fri, before
lifting NE away from the area. Strong to gale-force cyclonic
winds will accompany this low pressure for waters N of 24N late
tonight into Fri. Peak seas are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft
north of 26N between 55W and 75W. Marine conditions will improve
considerably Sat as a weak frontal system moves E across the
region.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 05N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N20W to 03N30W and to 00N39W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 10W and 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley
extends a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and provides gentle to
moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. Over the eastern half of the
basin winds are moderate from the N to NW due to the passage of a
cold front that at 2100 UTC extends from Englewood, Florida to
27N87W. Seas basin-wide are slight, except in the NE gulf where
seas are moderate behind the front.

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail
through Fri as high pressure dominates. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
western Gulf early Sat, then shift east into Sun, in advance of
the next cold front. By Sun evening, this cold front is expected
to move E of the Gulf, with strong to near gale-force W to NW
winds expanding across much of the basin Sun afternoon through
Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW
Caribbean where the tail of a cold front is moving across central
Cuba. These features support moderate northerly winds over the NW
basin while a tighter pressure gradient in the SW Caribbean
supports fresh to strong N to NE winds offshore Nicaragua and
Colombia. Seas in the SW basin are 5 to 8 ft. The tail of a
weakening cold front moves across central Puerto Rico SW to the
southern Dominican Republic adjacent waters where it transitions
to a remnant trough into the SW basin. A weaker pressure gradient
over the E half of the Caribbean due to the passage of the front
supports gentle to moderate winds over that region along with seas
to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will continue
offshore of Nicaragua through Thu morning, behind a dissipating
frontal trough. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean
will force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late
nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night.
Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through
Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sun
evening, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W. Strong
to near gale-force westerly winds will build across the Yucatan
Channel and extreme NW Caribbean late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gale
Warning for portions of Atlantic waters S of Bermuda.

A pair of cold fronts extends from the low pressure over The
Carolinas adjacent waters into the SW N Atlantic waters. The
leading cold front extends from 31N73W to central Cuba and the
reinforcing front extends from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Fresh to strong winds are ahead of the front while strong to near
gale force W to NW winds are affecting the offshore waters N of
25N and W of 75W. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are associated with
this pair of fronts. In the central Atlantic, another cold front
extends from 31N46W SW across Puerto Rico into S Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Surface high pressure anchored by a 1017 mb high
is S of Bermuda and between this cold front and the leading cold
front in the SW N Atlantic waters. Over the E subtropical
Atlantic, surface ridging dominates along with gentle to moderate
NE to E winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall tonight,
then dissipate Thu. Otherwise weak high pressure and moderate to
large NW swell will prevail across the remaining waters through
Thu. Low pressure offshore North Carolina will move E-SE along
31N-33N through Fri, before lifting NE away from the area. Strong
to gale-force cyclonic winds will accompany this broad low
pressure for waters N of 24N tonight into Fri. Marine conditions
will improve considerably Sat as a weak frontal system moves E
across the region. Low pressure and a new frontal system will move
across the NW waters late Mon.

$$
Ramos
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