[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250427
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
1037 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic and the Colombian
low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the
coast of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas
are forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft during the period of gale
force winds. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. The ITCZ
extends southwestward from the Liberia coast to 06N20W to 01N35W.
Currently, there is no significant convection to report.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from southern Louisiana to southern Texas
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting
the northern Gulf waters. The remainder of the basin is dominated
by a strong 1037 mb ridge over the NW Atlantic that extends
southwestward into the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico
sustain fresh to locally strong SE winds in the eastern and
central Gulf, especially east of 91W. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic
combined with lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will continue
to support fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf waters tonight.
A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf overnight. The front
will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico late Thu before
stalling. Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico today through Thu. Another cold front
will reach the NW Gulf late Fri night, extend from Mobile, Alabama
to near Veracruz, Mexico late Sat, and from Tampa Bay to the
eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Fresh NW to N winds will
follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong to near-
gale force winds in the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

The strong 1037 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic extends
southward into the Caribbean Sea. The dry airmass progressing
across the basin only allows for a pockets of low-level moisture
and isolated, shallow showers. Outside of the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds are
prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
6-12 ft, with the highest seas in the north-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will
continue to support strong trade winds and rough seas over most of
the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras,
through Thu night. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast at
nighttime through the early morning hours near the coast of
Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Seas will
gradually subside over the weekend as a cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N41W and
continues southwestward to 27N38W. Latest satellite imagery depict
scattered moderate convection ahead of the front to 27W and north
of 22N. Fresh to strong anticyclonic winds prevail west of a line
from 31N31W to 06N55W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The
exception is under the ridge, mainly north of 28N and between 41W
and 66W, where winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-8 ft.

The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging. In the NE
Atlantic, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge
and lower pressures near the coast of NW Africa sustain fresh to
locally strong easterly winds north of 23N and east of 28W. Seas
are 5-8 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from near
18N55W to 18N68W. The front will gradually dissipate tonight.
Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will continue to
bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S
of 25N through Thu morning. Winds and seas will then gradually
decrease Thu night through Fri night as the high pressure weakens.
Looking ahead, the next cold front should emerge off the coast of
NE Florida by Sun.

$$
DELGADO
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