[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low
will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast
of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas are
forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft during the period of gale force
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. The ITCZ
extends southwestward from the Liberia coast to 06N20W to 01N35W.
Currently, there is no significant convection to report.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over The Carolinas adjacent open waters
continue to extend a ridge SW across the Florida Peninsula and
through the far western far Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a surface trough over the NW Caribbean,
remnants of a former frontal boundary, is supporting fresh to
strong E to SE winds across the Florida Straits and offshore the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Over the remainder eastern half of the
basin, moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing along with 5-7 ft
seas while gentle to moderate SE winds and seas to 6 ft dominate
the waters W of 90W.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf
late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico late Thu before stalling. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this
evening through Thu. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf
late Fri night, extend from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz,
Mexico late Sat, and from Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche
Sun morning. Fresh NW to N winds will follow this front across
the Gulf of Mexico, with strong to near-gale force winds in the
SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Strong high pressure over the Carolinas adjacent waters extends a
ridge S into the northern half of the Caribbean. The associated
gradient between the high and low pressure over NW Colombia is
supporting the continuation of gales offshore NW Colombia along
with rough seas to 14 ft. Strong to near gale-force trades are
ongoing in the SW and E Caribbean with rough seas in the 8 to 12
ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the NW basin, except for
strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras where rough seas are up to
9 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will
continue to support strong trade winds and rough seas over most of
the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras,
through Thu night. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the
nighttime through the early morning hours near the coast of
Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Seas will
gradually subside over the weekend as a cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The dominant feature over the subtropical Atlantic waters is a
surface ridge anchored by strong high pressure over the Carolinas
adjacent waters. This features is providing mainly fresh to strong
NE to E winds and rough 8-12 ft seas between 40W and 65W, and
fresh to strong E to SE winds W of 65W along with rough seas to 10
ft, including the Great Bahama Bank, the approaches to the
Windward Passage and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters.
Over the far eastern subtropical Atlantic, surface ridging also
dominates supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas
to 10 ft in the Canary Islands adjacent waters. Between both
ridges, a stationary front from 30N32W to 21N40W continues to
weaken.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure in the wake of
a former frontal boundary will continue to bring strong trade
winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S of 25N through Thu
morning. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease Thu night
through Fri night as the high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, the
next cold front should emerge off the coast of NE Florida by Sun.

$$
Ramos
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