[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing gale-
force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia every night
through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf
of Venezuela tonight and Tuesday night. Seas are forecast to peak
near 14 to 17 ft offshore from northwestern Colombia and 6 to 8 ft
in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large NW swell from the north-central Atlantic will produce seas
in the 12 to 14 ft seas across the waters north of 28N between 48W
and 61W. Seas over these waters will subside through the overnight
hours, decreasing below 12 ft by Tue morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
the items above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10.5N15W to 05N19W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 04N24W to 04N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 18N between 16W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the Gulf waters. Fresh to
strong anticyclonic wind flow prevails across much of the Gulf
waters. Seas are mainly in the 8-11 ft range, reaching near 12 ft
over the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure east of the area and lower pressures over Texas and
Mexico will lead to a continuation of fresh to strong SE winds
across most of the Gulf through at least Tue night. A cluster of
thunderstorms near a sharp surface trough is likely to affect
portions of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico tonight through
Tue, bringing strong to near-gale force winds. Winds will
diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak cold front moves into the
NW Gulf toward the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A dissipating stationary front extends from northern Hispaniola
to south of the Yucatan Channel. Aside from the near-gale to gale
force winds off Colombia, fresh to strong winds prevail across the
central and western Caribbean with fresh to locally strong winds
over the eastern Caribbean. Aside from the area of 12 ft or
greater seas off Colombia, seas of 8-11 ft prevail over the
central and western Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft over the
eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will
lead to a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas over
most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are
forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the
coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale
conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela
this evening and again Tue evening. A stationary front currently
extending from northern Haiti to 19N87W will gradually dissipate,
allowing strong winds in the NW Caribbean and lee of Cuba to
diminish a bit Tue afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
significant NW swell.

A cold front extends from near 24N55W to 20N67W, where it becomes
stationary to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of
the front and S of 25N, with moderate to fresh winds W of the
front and N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 22N and E
of 26W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Aside from
the area of 12 ft or greater seas, seas in the 8-11 ft range
prevail over much of the waters W of the front. Seas of 8-12 ft
are found N of 16N and E of 40W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-9 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will extend from 22N55W to
the Windward Passage early Tue, then dissipate by Wed. Strong
high pressure building in the wake of the front will support the
continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas through Tue
night or Wed to the southern waters, south of 25N. Winds and seas
will then gradually decrease during the second half of the week.

$$
AL
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