[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Tight gradient exists between a 1039 mb high over the U.S. Mid-
Atlantic states and the Colombian Low. This will sustain pulsing
gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia every
night through Fri night. In addition, gale winds are also
anticipated at the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and Tuesday
evening. Under the strongest winds, seas are forecast to peak at
14 to 17 ft offshore from northwestern Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in
the Gulf of Venezuela.

Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large NW swell from the north-central Atlantic is
expected to bring 12 to 15 ft seas across the western and central
Atlantic, north of 26N between 48W and 64W through late tonight.
Starting early Tue morning, this swell will gradually subside and
should allow seas to drop below 12 ft later Tue morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
the items above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near
Conakry, then curves southwestward to 05N19W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 05N19W through 04N30W to 04N40W. Scattered showers
are seen up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ. No
significant convection is present near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front reaches westward from just south of the Florida
Panhandle across New Orleans to a 1016 low pressure north of
Corpus Christi, then curves southwestward as a stationary front to
northeastern Mexico. Patchy rain are seen near the warm front
across the northern Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present near and up to 60 nm east of the
stationary front. Convergent southerly winds are causing similar
conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche. Strong southwesterly flow at the upper levels
are streaming thick cirrus across much the Gulf. Fresh to strong
E to SSE winds are noted for the entire Gulf. Seas at the western
and central Gulf range from 7 to 10 ft, while for the eastern Gulf
are between 6 and 8 ft.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extends southwestward from
a 1039 mb high over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states across northern
and central Florida to a 1019 mb high south of Tampico, Mexico.
This ridge will prolong fresh to strong E to SE winds across most
of the Gulf through at least Tue night. A trough of low pressure
is forecast to develop near the east-central Gulf this evening,
triggering strong thunderstorms and near-gale winds through
Winds will diminish from west to east Tuesday through Wednesday
before a weak cold front moves into the northwestern Gulf toward
the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A weak stationary front extends from northern Hispaniola across
the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba to south of the Yucatan
Channel. Widely scattered showers are occurring up to 100 nm along
either side of this front, a few thunderstorms are seen at the
Gulf of Honduras. Besides the gale winds and very rough seas
mentioned in the Special Features section, strong to near- gale
winds and seas at 8 to 13 ft dominate the central basin. Fresh to
strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas exist across the western
basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and
seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail at the eastern basin.

For the forecast, tight gradient between an unusually strong high
pressure north of the area and the Colombia Low will sustain strong
trade winds and rough seas for most of the basin, including the
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras, through at least Thursday.
The weak stationary front will gradually dissipate, allowing
strong winds in the northwestern Caribbean and lee of Cuba to
diminish a bit Tue afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
significant NW swell.

A cold front extends southwestward from west of the Azores across
31N47W to northeastern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and patchy
rain are occurring up to 100 nm northwest, and 50 nm southeast of
this boundary. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers
from 02N to 06N between 40W and 50W. Aided by very strong
divergent flow aloft, convergent NE winds are producing scattered
moderate convection near the Cabo Verde Islands from 09N to 17N
between the central Africa coast and 26W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Significant Swell area, moderate to fresh with
locally strong NNE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft exist north
of 20N behind the cold front. Further east north of 20N, gentle
to moderate with locally fresh E to SE to SSW winds and 7 to 9 ft
seas in mixed moderate swell are noted between 30W and the cold
front. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NE winds and seas
at 8 to 11 ft are evident north of 20N between the northwest
Africa coast and 30W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to
moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft are found from 05N to 20N
between the central Africa coast and 38W. To the west, moderate
to fresh NE to ENE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas in large mixed swell
are present from 07N to 20N between 38W and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swell prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will extend from 22N55W
to the Windward Passage early Tue, then dissipate by Wed.
Unusually strong high pressure building in the wake of the front
will bring a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas
through Tue night to the waters south of 25N. Winds and seas will
then gradually decrease during the second half of the week.

$$

Chan
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