[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220446
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure moving off the SE United States coast and lower
pressure over Colombia will support pulsing gale force winds in
the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia every night
through Thu night. Seas currently 9-13 ft will build to 12-15 ft
by Tue and remain within this range through Fri. Gales are also
forecast in the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N16.5W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16.5W to 03N32W
to 0.5N46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02.5N
to 06N between 24W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1019 mb low pressure is off the coast of Brownsville,
Texas near 27.5N97W. This low has a warm front to its north
across the Texas coast and a stationary front to its south.
Elsewhere, the associated ridging of strong high pressure
centered over the SE United States dominates the Gulf region and
is generating fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas 5 to 7 ft
across the eastern half of the basin. West of 90W and over the
approaches of the Yucatan Channel winds are fresh to strong with
seas 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters through at least Tue supporting fresh to strong winds and
rough seas. The area of high pressure will then move eastward,
veering winds over the Gulf waters. The next cold front will
move into the NW Gulf toward the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to central Belize.
Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 9 ft are behind the
front across the NW Caribbean. Over the offshore waters of
central Cuba winds are strong to near gale-force. Fresh to near
gale-force trades and rough seas to 10 ft are ongoing in the
central and SW basin, including the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail in the E Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front
will gradually weaken. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
prevail in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure moving
eastward from the SE United States into the western Atlantic
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
trade winds over most of the basin, including the Windward
Passage through at least mid-week. Pulsing gale conditions and
rough seas are forecast at night near the coast of Colombia
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 30N55W to 21N76W where it
transitions to a stationary front that reaches eastern Cuba.
Surface ridging dominates the remainder SW, N Atlantic waters W
of the front as well as central and eastern subtropical Atlantic
waters. The associated pressure gradient between the front and
both ridges supports fresh to strong northerlies and rough seas
to 15 ft behind the front. Ahead of the front, fresh to near-
gale force S to SW winds with seas to 12 ft are N of 26N between
47W and 56W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 12 ft
are in the E subtropical waters while moderate to fresh trades
prevail over the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will
gradually weaken early this week. Strong high pressure building
in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and
seas for the early to middle part of next week. Winds and seas
will then gradually decrease the second half of the week.

$$
KRV
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