[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Minimal gale force NW to N winds are
still ongoing off the coast of Veracruz in the SW Gulf with seas
of 10 to 14 ft. These winds will diminish below gale force early
this morning. Strong high pressure will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through the next 48 hours producing fresh to strong
winds and rough seas.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure moving eastward
from the SE CONUS into the western Atlantic combined with the
Colombian low will support gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia at night through Thu night. Seas are forecast to build to
13 or 14 ft within these winds. Strong winds will prevail in the
Gulf of Venezuela reaching minimal gale-force on Mon night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W
to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 15W and 21W, and within
about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 21W to 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the SW Gulf through 1200 UTC.
Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.

Outside of the warning area, a strong high pressure over the SE
CONUS dominates the Gulf region generating fresh to strong NE to E
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded
areas of rain, is noted over most of the Gulf waters due to strong
SW winds aloft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters through at least Tue supporting fresh to strong winds and
rough seas. As the high pressure moves eastward, winds will veer
to the E and SE on Mon, and to SE and S on Tue, becoming moderate
south to southwest in the far NW part of the Gulf Wed and Wed
night as the next frontal system approaches eastern Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean.

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to central Belize. Low level
clouds, with possible showers, are associated with the frontal
boundary. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
are noted in the wake of the front, including the Yucatan Channel.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean while moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
near the coast of Colombia, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across most of
the E and central Caribbean. E of the front, patches of low level
moisture, with isolated to scattered passing showers are observed.

For the forecast, the cold front extending over the northwestern
Caribbean will become stationary from near the Windward Passage to
central Belize today while weakening. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Strong high
pressure moving eastward from the SE CONUS into the western
Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over most of the basin, including the Windward
Passage through at least mid-week. Pulsing gale conditions and
rough seas are forecast at night near the coast of Colombia
tonight through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N58W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to
strong winds are noted per scatterometer data behind the front but
mainly N of 29N, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong N winds
are also observed between the NW Bahamas and E Florida, and between
the NW Bahamas and Cuba W of 76W. Fresh to strong SW winds are N
of 30N E of the front to about 47W, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Low
level clouds, with possible showers are related to the frontal
boundary. Abundant cold air stratocumulus clouds follow the front.
Fresh to strong trades dominate most of the waters S of 20N and E
of the Lesser Antilles, with seas of 8 to 10 ft based on altimeter
data. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a
1031 mb high pressure located just W of the Madeira Islands. The
pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over
western Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of
Western Sahara where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Similar sea
heights are seen across the waters between the Madeira and the
Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach
from near 29N55W to Hispaniola tonight, then become stationary
Mon along 20N/21N where it will gradually weaken through late Tue.
Strong high pressure building in the wake of this front will
bring an increase in winds and seas for the early to middle part
of next week.

$$
GR
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