[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently extends
from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the Bay of
Campeche. Gale force N to NW winds are still ongoing off the
coast of Veracruz in the SW Gulf with rough seas to 13 ft. Gales
are forecast to end this evening as the front pushes eastward away
from the basin. However, fresh to strong winds will prevail
over most of the basin through Tue as a new cold front approaches
from the northwest.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build over
the western Atlantic tonight through Sun night. The gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressure over South America
will cause gale-force northeast to east winds Sun night in the
south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are
forecast to build to 9-13 ft. Winds are expected to diminish to
near gale-force speeds by Mon morning, however seas will remain
unchanged ranging from 9-13 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both
Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 02N33W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N between
12W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula to the central Bay of Campeche. The front is followed by
fresh to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft,
except for gale-force NW winds and seas to 13 ft in the offshore
waters of Veracruz, Mexico.

For the forecast, the front will shift away of the area and winds
will diminish below gale-force in the Veracruz offshore waters this
evening. Strong high pressure will continue to build in the wake
of the front, supporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds
over most of the basin through early next week, except becoming
moderate south to southwest in the far NW part of the Gulf Wed and
Wed night as the next frontal system approaches eastern Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the south-central Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing over the NE and north-central
Caribbean while fresh to strong winds prevail in the SE and
portions of the SW basin. Seas over the eastern and central
Caribbean are in the 5-7 ft range. In the NW basin, winds are
gentle to moderate from the NE, increasing to fresh to strong in
the approaches of the Yucatan Channel as a strong cold front
approaches. Seas in this region are 3-4 ft but will rapidly build
as the front continues to move eastward.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
prevail across the south-central Caribbean. The aforementioned cold
front will move into the northwestern Caribbean this evening,
then become stationary from near the Windward Passage to near
northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
follow behind this front. Strong high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic early next week, increasing coverage of fresh to
strong trade winds and building seas across the central and
eastern basin. Pulsing gale conditions are possible at night near
the coast of Colombia Sun night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold fronts extends from 31N60W SW across Andros Island to W
Cuba and into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas to 10 ft are ahead and behind the front.
The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence
of a surface ridge that is anchored by a 1029 mb high centered
near 33N21W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure over NW Africa continue to support fresh to strong NE
winds N of 20N E of 33W and over the tropical Atlantic waters.
Seas in these regions are in the 8-10 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
29N55W to near the Windward Passage by late Sun night, then become
stationary Mon over the extreme southern waters where it will
gradually weaken through late Tue. Strong high pressure building
in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and for
the early to middle part of next week.

$$
Ramos
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