[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front currently extends
from the Straits of Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force N
winds have begun off the coast of Veracruz in the SW Gulf. Seas
currently ranging from 8-10 ft will build to 12 ft with the gales.
Winds and seas will subside Sun as high pressure builds over the
basin in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build over
the western Atlantic tonight through Sun night. The gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressure over South America
will cause gale force northeast to east winds Sun night in the
south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are
forecast to build to 9-13 ft. Winds are expected to diminish to
near gale force speeds by Mon morning, however seas will remain
unchanged ranging from 9-13 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both
Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N31W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north and
south of the ITCZ and the Monsoon Trough west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the SW Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front as described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section
extends from the Straits of Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered
showers are along the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh NE winds
were sampled north of the front by satellite scatterometer.
Outside of the GALE WARNING area, seas in the Gulf range from 5-8
ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the area
this afternoon. Fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas
follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are
expected in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz today and tonight.
Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front,
supporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds over most of
the basin through early next week, except becoming moderate south
to southwest in the far NW part of the Gulf Wed and Wed night as
the next frontal system approaches eastern Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the south-central Caribbean.

Recent scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades within
the central Caribbean, accompanied by 6-9 ft seas. Fastest winds,
with locally strong speeds, and highest seas are off the coast of
Colombia in the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere in the
eastern and western Caribbean, trades are mainly moderate with
seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
prevail across the south central Caribbean and east of the Lesser
Antilles today. A cold front will move into the northwestern
Caribbean today, then become stationary from near the Windward
Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong high pressure
will build over the western Atlantic early next week, increasing
coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across
the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale conditions are
possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun night through Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two cold fronts are moving through the Western Atlantic Offshore
Waters. The primary cold front extends from 31N61W to 25N70W. The
reinforcing cold front extends from 31N67W to the Straits of
Florida. Isolated showers are near both boundaries. Gentle to
moderate NW winds are west of both fronts, with fresh N winds
noted in the Florida coastal waters. Seas greater than 8 ft in NW
swell are north of a line from 31N55W to 28N71W to 31N75W, with
seas to 11 ft along 31N. 1030 mb high pressure is centered near
30N33W. South of 20N across the tropical Atlantic, trade winds are
fresh to strong with 7-10 ft seas. North of 20N, gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will
overtake the primary cold front, with the combined from reaching
from near 29N55W to near the Windward Passage by late Sun night,
then become stationary Mon over the extreme southern waters where
it will gradually weaken through late Tue. Strong high pressure
building in the wake of this front will bring an increase in winds
and for the early to middle part of next week.

$$
Mahoney
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