[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will continue
to move across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the front will reach gale-force
speeds Offshore Veracruz today and tonight. Seas with these winds
are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with highest seas peaking
tonight offshore Veracruz. These conditions will subside Sun as
high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: An area of broad strong high pressure
will build over the western Atlantic starting Sat night and into
Sun night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
relatively lower pressures to the south in Colombia will lead to
gale force northeast to east winds Sun night in the southwestern
part of the sea, primarily south of 13N between 74W-76W. Seas
are forecast to build to the range of 9-13 ft with these winds.
Winds are expected to diminish to just below gale force by around
12Z on Mon, however, seas will remain about the same range at
that time.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues southwestward to 06N17W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 03N30W to 03N37W and to 03N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
23W-28W, between 34W-38W and within 60 nm of the trough between
14W-18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Gale Warning.

The cold front mentioned in the Special Features extends from
the Florida Keys to 22N89W and to 21N95W, where it transitions to
a stationary front to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Abundant
moisture continues to stream northeastward from the eastern
Pacific Ocean, which is supporting areas of rain and scattered
showers over some locations of the central and western sections of
the Gulf. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are behind the
front along with seas to 8 ft. Strong to near gale force winds
are in the far western part of the west-central Gulf south of 24N
and west of 95W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range.
Winds ahead of the front in the far southeastern Gulf are
generally gentle to moderate from the northeast. Seas there are
4-5 ft in southeast to south swell.

For the forecast, the above described cold front will shift
southeast of the area this afternoon. Fresh to near gale force
winds and rough seas will follow behind the front. Gale force
winds and very rough seas are expected in the SW Gulf offshore
Veracruz today and tonight. Strong high pressure will build in the
wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong southeast to south
winds over most of the basin through early next week, except
becoming moderate south to southwest in the far NW part of the
Gulf Wed and Wed night as the next frontal system approaches
eastern Texas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western periphery of broad high pressure that is over the
central Atlantic reaches west-southwest to near 65W. The pressure
difference between the high pressure and relatively lower
pressures in South America is bringing moderate to fresh trade
winds in the eastern and southern Caribbean sections. Fresh to
strong trade winds are in the central part of the sea, with the
strongest of the winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are
8-9 ft in the region of strongest winds. In the northwestern part
of the Caribbean winds are light to gentle with seas generally
around 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
prevail across the south central Caribbean and east of the Lesser
Antilles today. A cold front that is approaching western Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel will move into the northwestern Caribbean
today, then become stationary from near the Windward Passage to
near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
will follow behind this front. Strong high pressure will build
over the western Atlantic early next week. This will tighten the
gradient allowing for increasing coverage of fresh to strong
trade winds and building seas across the central and eastern
basin. Pulsing gale conditions are possible at night near the
coast of Colombia Sun night through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to 27N77W and to the Florida
Keys. To its east another cold front is analyzed from near 31N62W
to 26N71W, where it begins to dissipate to central Cuba near
22N78W. Overnight ASCAT data passes depict fresh to strong south
to southwest winds ahead of the second mentioned cold front north
of 29N and east to 58W, and fresh to strong west to northwest
behind the first mentioned cold front. These winds extend west to
81W and are north of about 29N. Seas of 8-9 ft are east of the
cold front that extends from 31N62W to 26N71W and higher seas of
8-11 ft are west of the cold front that extends from 31N70W to
27N77W and to the Florida Keys. A 1028 mb high center is analyzed
in the eastern Atlantic near 29N35W. High pressure ridging covers
the area north of about 14N and east of 58W. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure
over northwest Africa is supporting fresh to strong north to
northeast winds and rough seas over the waters north of 18N and
east of 22W to along the coast of Africa. Similar winds and seas
are found in the tropics due to the pressure gradient between the
ridge and the lower pressure that is found there.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from near 29N55W to 24N65W and to near NW Haiti and the
Windward Passage by late Sun night, then become entirely
stationary Mon over the extreme southern waters. It will gradually
weaken through late Tue. Strong high pressure building in the
wake of this front will bring an increase in winds and for the
early to middle part of next week.

$$
Aguirre
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