[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will continue
to move across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the front will reach gale-force
speeds in the far west part of the central Gulf waters offshore
Tampico tonight and offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Seas with
these winds are forecast to build to 8-12 ft, with highest seas
peaking on Sat night offshore Veracruz. These conditions will
subside Sun as high pressure builds over the basin in the wake of
the front.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N16W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N30W to 02S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 20W and
45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Gale Warning.

The cold front mentioned in the Special Features extends from just
S of Tampa Bay to the central Gulf SW to just N of Tampico.
Moisture continues to stream NE from the E Pacific waters, which
is supporting scattered to isolated showers basin-wide. Fresh to
strong N to NE follows the front with rough seas to 9 ft already
developed over the NW gulf waters. Winds ahead of the front, over
the SE basin, are light to gentle with slight seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by early Sat and southeast of the
area by late Sat. Fresh to near gale winds and rough seas will
follow behind the front. Gale force winds and very rough seas are
expected in the far west central Gulf near Tampico tonight and in
the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz Sat and Sat night. Strong high
pressure will build in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to
strong southeast to south winds over most of the basin through
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface high pressure over the central subtropical waters
continues to extend a ridge towards the northern Caribbean waters.
This is generating a tight pressure gradient against low pressure
over Colombia. This is resulting in the continuation of moderate
to fresh trades over the E and SW Caribbean and fresh to strong
winds over the central basin, being the strongest winds in the
offshores of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in the
region of strongest winds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
prevail across the south-central Caribbean though tonight. Fresh
to strong trades with moderate to rough seas will prevail east of
the Lesser Antilles through Sat. A cold front will move into the
northwestern Caribbean on Sat, then become stationary from near
the Windward Passage to near northern Belize on Sun. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front. Strong
high pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next
week, increasing coverage of fresh to strong trade winds and
building seas across the central and eastern basin. Pulsing gale
conditions are possible at night near the coast of Colombia Sun
night through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move across the
northern and central waters through late Sat, with fresh to strong
winds on either side of the front. Another cold front will move
across the waters offshore northern Florida today. This front is
forecast to reach the far southern waters by late Sun and become
stationary. Strong high pressure building in the wake of this
front will bring an increase in winds and seas early next week.

$$
Ramos
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