[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
ridge along 25N and lower pressures in northern South America
will continue to support strong NE trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean Sea through early Fri, then diminishing to
fresh to strong there Fri afternoon through the weekend. Winds
will pulse to gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia
tonight, reaching speeds up to 40 kt from 11N to 12N between 74.5W
and 75.5W. Seas to 14 ft are expected in the area tonight. Winds
to near-gale force are expected Thu night offshore Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues westward to 04N16.5W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N16.5W to 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm N and 30 nm S of the ITCZ between 24W and
39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure ridging continues to build in across the
Gulf of Mexico, interrupted by a surface trough that extends from
the SW Gulf near 18.5N93W to the west-central Gulf near 26N96.5W.
Over the western Bay of Campeche, to the west of the surface
trough and south of 20N, NW winds are still fresh to strong. A
17/1630 UTC altimeter pass indicated that seas were still in the
12 to 13 ft range from 18.5N to 19N between 94.5W and 95W, but
seas there have now likely subsided to 10 to 11 ft. Elsewhere
across the southern Gulf of Mexico, south of a line from Tampa Bay
to NE Mexico near 24N98W, winds are fresh with 6 to 8 ft seas,
except for 8 to 10 ft south of 23N between 84.5W and 96W,
including in the Yucatan Channel. North of a line extending from
Tampa Bay to NE Mexico, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3
to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over southern Mississippi
will move eastward towards the Carolinas by tonight. As a result,
winds will veer to the E and SE tonight and Thu with improving
marine conditions. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by
late Thu, reaching from Apalachicola, FL to 26N90W to Brownsville,
TX by Fri morning, and from the Straits of Florida to Merida,
Mexico to 18N94W by Sat morning. Strong to near gale-force N to NE
winds are expected over the western Gulf, with fresh to strong
winds elsewhere, behind the front Fri through Sat. Gale-force
winds and building seas are expected over the SW Gulf off Tampico
Fri evening and off Veracruz Fri night through Sat, in the wake
of the front. Strong high pressure will follow the front, keeping
fresh to strong wind speeds and rough seas over most of the Gulf
waters through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean from western
Cuba near 23N82W to Cozumel to Tulum, Mexico. Fresh NE winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are likely occurring across the Yucatan
Channel. Elsewhere in the NW Caribbean to the SE of the front,
moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. In the eastern and
central Caribbean, fresh trade winds prevail, except for strong to
near-gale force in the south-central Caribbean from 11N to 16N
between 69W and 78W. A recent satellite altimeter pass from
17/2000 UTC shows seas ranging from 8 to 10 ft from 10N to 16N
between 76W and 79W. NOAA buoy 42058 located near 14.8N 75.1W
recently measured a significant wave height of 10.5 ft at 17/2120
UTC. It is likely that seas of 8 to 11 ft extend from 10N to 17N
between 68W and 81W. Elsewhere east of 81W and south of 18N, seas
are 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the NW Caribbean will
dissipate late tonight. Strong high pressure ridging along 25N
combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse
to gale-force during the nighttime hours tonight. The next cold
front is forecast to reach the NW Caribbean on Sat, reaching from
the Windward Passage to the N coast of Honduras by late Sun.
Strong high pressure in the wake of the front is expected to bring
fresh to strong winds and building seas across most of the basin
through Mon, with gale conditions possible near the coast of
Colombia. Strong to near-gale force NE to ENE winds are expected
in the Windward Passage in the lee of Cuba Sun evening through
Mon morning, with strong winds covering the remainder of the NW
Caribbean during that time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas near
24.5N76W, then continues SW as a stationary front to Havana, Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 150 nm SE
of the front, mainly north of 28N and east of 70W. Fresh N winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are found to the NW of the front. Fresh to
strong SW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are east of the front to 58W,
mainly north of 29N. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas 6 to
7 ft are likely occurring near the N coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.

Farther east, a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 33N43W
extends ridging west-southwestward to 29N50W to 26N60W to 25N70W.
Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are within a couple
hundred nm of the ridge axis. A cold front extends from 31N23.5W
to 24N38W, then continues W as a stationary front to 25N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25.5N between 23W
and 31W. Fresh to strong N winds are NW of the cold front, mainly
north of 25.5N between 25W and 36W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft cover the
area north of 26N and east of 45W. Farther south, fresh trade
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas cover the area from 05N to 22N between
30W and 62W.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from Bermuda to Havana,
Cuba will move eastward and extend from 31N58W to the central
Bahamas on Thu morning. Later on Thu, it will become stationary
and begin to lift northward ahead of the next cold front forecast
to enter the northeast Florida offshore waters on Fri. The front
will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sat, from
31N57W to eastern Cuba early Sun, and from 31N48W to the N coast
of Haiti early Mon. This front will cause winds and seas to
build once again north of 26N Fri night through Sat night. Very
strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic in the
wake of this front will cause strong NE winds and rough seas
across the area south of 26N to the Greater Antilles from Sun
afternoon through early next week.

$$
Hagen
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