[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162234
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from the
Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are found near and up to 150 nm
southeast of the front, mainly from the Yucatan Channel to 27N
between 86W and the west coast of Florida. Strong to near-gale
force N winds and very rough seas are occurring west of the front,
with gale force NW to N winds likely occurring offshore of
Veracruz, Mexico. Recent buoy observations from portions of the
west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico show seas of 11 to 13 ft, but
it is possible that seas may currently be peaking in the 14 to 16
ft range from offshore of Tampico to offshore of Veracruz. Gales
should end this evening as the front reaches from Ft. Myers, FL to
Merida, Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the
Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Wed.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight gradient between a strong
surface ridge over the central Atlantic and the Colombian Low is
causing strong to near-gale force ENE winds over the south-central
Caribbean. The winds offshore northwestern Colombia will pulse to
gale force during the nighttime hours tonight through Thu night.
Seas will range from 12 to 14 ft under the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on both
Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone
coast near 08N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to
04N40W to 04N51W. Scattered showers are noted from 01N to 05N
between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning, as
well as a description of features, convection, winds and waves
along and west of the cold front. To the southeast of the cold
front, winds are generally moderate with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the strong to gale force northerly winds and
very rough seas behind the cold front across the west-central and
southwestern Gulf will gradually subside tonight. Fresh to strong
N winds and rough seas will prevail across the central and
eastern Gulf through Wed morning. The front will exit the Gulf
tonight into Wed morning. Afterward, the next cold front will
enter the northwestern Gulf late Thu and move southward across the
basin through late Fri night into Sat morning, followed by fresh
to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. Gale force
winds and rough seas are expected over the western Bay of
Campeche behind the front on Sat afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning off
the NW coast of Colombia.

Strong mid-level ridging across the Caribbean Sea is leading to
mostly dry weather. The exception is near the Yucatan Channel
ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front, where isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery. Fresh to strong
trade winds are occurring across the eastern and central basin
east of 80W and south of 18.5N, except for near-gale winds in the
Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the
eastern Caribbean and 7 to 11 ft in the central basin, highest
near 12.5N77W. This analysis is supported by recent satellite
altimeter and buoy data from the central Caribbean Sea. In the far
SW Caribbean W of 80W, moderate ENE winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail.
In the NW Caribbean W of 80W, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and
3 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the basin combined with the
Colombian low will support a continuation of fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean through at least Thu night. Winds off northwestern
Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime hours from
tonight through Thu night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel Wed morning, bringing fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 9
ft seas through Wed evening before diminishing. A second cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sat, then reach from
eastern Cuba to the N coast of Honduras Sun. Fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas are expected across the NW Caribbean behind
the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N79W to Daytona Beach, FL. A squall
line is analyzed ahead of the front from 31N76W to 28N78W to
27N80W as of 2100 UTC. Broken moderate convection with
thunderstorms is noted within 60 nm either side of the analyzed
squall line. Fresh to strong SW winds are along and east of the
cold front to 70W, mainly north of 28N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in this
area. Farther south, fresh to locally strong ESE trade winds
extend off the N coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with 6 to 8
ft seas in the area. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7
ft seas are elsewhere over the W Atlantic, west of 65W.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N41W to
27N50W. Fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are NW of the
front, mainly N of 29N and east of 49W. Farther south, fresh trade
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas cover the area from 05N to 22N between
46W and 62W, and from 05N to 14N between 35W and 46W. Seas of 8 to
9 ft were confirmed by a recent 16/1830 UTC altimeter pass from
14N to 20N between 56W and 60W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N15W to
26N23W. Fresh winds and seas of 11 ft of greater are confined to
areas north of 29N between 14W and 26W. Ridging with gentle winds
extends from 24N20W to 25N35W. W to NW swell is keeping seas in
the 8 to 11 ft range from 22N to 29N between 14W and 29W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N79W
to Daytona Beach, FL  will reach from 31N71W to the northwest
Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning. The front will then
extend from 31N57W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning before
becoming nearly stationary. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and
rough seas behind this front will shift eastward, to the north of
27N, through Wed. High pressure building E of the front will keep
fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast
Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of the week.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge off the Florida
coast Fri and extend from 31N57W to the Windward Passage by early
Sun. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are forecast to
follow this front across the western Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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