[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the central
Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers isolated thunderstorms are
found near and up to 150 nm northwest of the front. Strong to
gale-force N winds and very rough seas are occurring behind this
front across the northwestern Gulf, and will shift southward into
the far west-central and southwestern Gulf this afternoon and
early evening. Seas will peak from 11 to 14 ft under the strongest
winds. As this front pushes farther southeastward into eastern
Gulf tonight, both winds and seas across the western Gulf will
steadily subside.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...
Tight gradient between a 1024 mb high over central Atlantic and
the Colombian Low is causing fresh to strong easterly winds over
the central basin. These winds off northwestern Colombia will gust
frequently to gale-force until mid morning. Seas will range from
12 to 15 ft under the strongest winds. Afterward, sustained winds
at this same location are going to reach gale-force during the
nighttime and early morning hours, tonight and Wednesday night and
possibly Thursday night.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone-Liberia
border, stretches westward across 05N20W to 05N26W. An ITCZ
continues from 05N26W across 02N36W to 03N41W. Widely scattered
showers are occurring south of the trough from 01N to 05N between
10W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 60 nm
along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Pleas read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

Other than the cold front and related weather mentioned in the
Special Features section, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft are present behind this front at the north-central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist ahead of
the front in the eastern and south-central Gulf, including the
eastern Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas following
behind the cold front will reach the central Gulf this afternoon
and eastern Gulf by early Wed morning. The front will exit the
Gulf late tonight into Wed morning. Afterward, the next cold front
will enter the northwestern Gulf late Thu and move southward
across the basin through late Fri night into early Sat morning,
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough
seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pleas read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning.

A 1024 mb high near 28N58W is sustaining a trade-wind pattern
across much of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent E to SE winds are
triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off
the western Cuba coast, and across the central and eastern basin.
Outside the strong to gale winds and very rough seas mentioned in
the Special Features section, fresh to locally strong E winds and
seas at 7 to 11 ft are evident for the north-central and eastern
basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, besides the fresh to strong winds and rough seas
for the north-central and eastern basin, the 1024 mb high will
also cause fresh to locally strong trades with moderate to rough
seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Fri. A cold
front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico will stall over the Yucatan
Channel late tonight and Wed, causing a period of fresh to
locally strong winds and moderate seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves southwestward from 24N35W to 21N46W.
Widely scattered showers and noted up to 50 nm along either side
of this feature. A surface trough embedded with the trade-wind
flow is triggering scattered showers east of the Windward Islands
from 14N to 16N between 46W and 55W. The southwestern end of a
cold front reaches westward from 31N43W to 29N55W. Patchy showers
are occurring up to 40 nm along either side of this front.
Convergent southerly winds south of a frontal boundary near the
Georgia and South Carolina coast are generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the northeastern Florida offshore
waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning
for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to NE to E winds and seas
of 6 to 8 ft in moderate NE swell exist north of 20N between 35W
and 60W. To the west, moderate to fresh SE to SSE winds and 4 to 6
ft seas dominate from north of 25N between 60W and the Florida-
Georgia coast. Fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and 6 to
8 ft seas are found from 20N to 25N between 60W and the Bahamas.
For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate N swell are present from 05N to 20N
between 35W and 50W. Farther west, fresh to locally strong E winds
and seas of 8 to 9 ft are evident from 05N to 20N between 50W and
the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary from southeast of Bermuda
to northern Florida has dissipated. A new cold front will exit off
the Florida northeast coast later this morning, and reach from
31N71W to the northwest Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning.
It will be from 31N56W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning then
becoming nearly stationary. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and
rough seas behind this front will shift eastward across 27N
through Wed. High pressure building E of the front is going to
keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast
Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of this week.

$$

Chan
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