[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between W
Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia will
support winds pulsing to minimal gale force at night within 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia tonight through Wed night. Seas will
range from 9 to 12 ft within the strong to gale force wind area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front reaches
southwestward from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to weak low
pressure of 27N93W. A cold front extends from the low pressure to
near Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near gale force N winds are
occurring west of the cold front and south of 27N, where seas have
recently built to 7 to 9 ft. The front will reach from 30N85W to
Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and from Ft. Myers, FL to the central
Bay of Campeche Tue evening. Winds across the entire area to the
NW of the front will increase to near-gale force late tonight into
Tue morning, with winds to minimal gale force offshore Louisiana
and Texas during that time. Then, gale force NW to N winds will
spread to the waters offshore NE Mexico and Tampico Tue morning,
and to the waters offshore Veracruz Tue afternoon and evening. The
gales are forecast to end later Tue night. Seas will build to 10
to 15 ft Tue morning west of the front, then gradually subside Tue
night into early Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on both areas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the west coast of
Africa near 14N17W, then extends west-southwestward to 12N22W. The
ITCZ continues from 12N22W to 05N33W to 04N43W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06.5N between
34W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
a gale warning associated with a cold front in the western Gulf of
Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Gulf of Mexico, to the east of that front, a
surface trough extending from Ft. Myers, FL westward to 25N90W is
inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 28N
between 87W and the west coast of Florida. Winds are moderate or
weaker, with seas 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the low pressure mentioned in the Special
Features section will move eastward toward the NE Gulf by Tue
morning with the cold front extending to near Veracruz, Mexico.
Near-gale to locally gale force northerly winds and rough seas
are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf Tue
and Tue evening. The front will exit the Gulf region Tue night
into Wed morning. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf late
on Thu and move southward across the basin through late Fri night
into early Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly
winds and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more information on
a Gale Warning for the Colombian basin.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow is leading to mostly dry weather
across the basin. Fresh trades prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean, east of 80W, except for strong to near-gale
force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 6
to 7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 7 to 10 ft in the central
Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5
ft seas prevail. In the far SW Caribbean, west of 80W, moderate E
to NE winds prevail with seas 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the basin combined with the
Colombian low will support a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds and rough seas across the east and central Caribbean through
Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-
force during the overnight hours through Wed night. A cold front
will become stationary across the Yucatan Channel Wed, sending
northerly swell of 8 to 9 ft across the Yucatan Channel Wed into
Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front stretches from 31N58.5W to 28N65W where the
boundary transitions to a stationary front to 28N70W, where the
boundary transitions to a warm front, extending west to the coast
of Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 26.5N to 30N between 76W and the east coast of Florida.
Moderate SE winds and seas 3 to 5 ft cover the area west of 70W,
except for fresh winds near the N coast of Hispaniola. A 1023 mb
high pressure is centered near 27N57W, leading to gentle or
weaker winds north of 24N between 55W and 70W, with seas 4 to 7
ft. Moderate to fresh E trades and 4-7 ft seas are south of 24N
between 55W-70W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N20W to
20N30W to 17N39W. A surface trough is located to the west of the
cold front, and it extends from 31N27.5W to 27N30W to 24N37W to
25N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 29N
between 19W and 24W. Fresh to strong SE winds are in between the
front and the trough, mainly north of 25N. Fresh to strong NW
winds are NW of the trough, mainly east of 35W. Seas are 10 to 15
ft with this system north of 21N between 20W and 38W. Seas are 8
to 10 ft elsewhere north of 18N between 18W and 52W. Elsewhere
across the eastern Atlantic, seas and 6 to 7 ft, and winds are
moderate or weaker, except for fresh trades west of 47W from 07N
to 21N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front over the western Atlantic
will lift northward ahead of the next cold front forecast to move
off the NE Florida coast on Tue. This new cold front will reach
from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning, and
from 31N56W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning where it will
become nearly stationary. High pressure building E of the front is
going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the
southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of
this week.

$$
Hagen
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