[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132248
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
Persistent large northerly swell is going to sustain seas of 12 to
16 ft, north of 22N and east of 50W through tonight. Two low-
pressure systems are expected to merge into one near 33N38W
tonight. This new low will deepen rapidly while moving
southeastward, causing strong to gale-force NW winds north of 28N
and east of 48W late tonight. The combination of existing
northerly swell and building wind waves will cause seas north of
26N and west of 48W to peak at 14 to 21 ft. Once the low begins to
gradually weaken and move east of the area by late Sun afternoon,
winds will diminish by Mon morning. Seas will slowly subside
through Mon also. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near Freetown, continuing southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues southwestward from 02N20W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N east
of 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 22N84W and continues
as a stationary front to near Cancun, Mexico. Moderate to fresh N
to NE winds and rough seas are found behind this front over the
northeastern and central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of
Campeche. For the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate
southerly winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall over the Yucatan
Channel Sun. Winds and seas over northeast Gulf are diminishing,
but increasing across the southeast Gulf Sun as high pressure
builds north of the front as it stalls over the Yucatan Channel.
The boundary will lift north as a dissipating warm front over the
eastern Gulf Mon. Meanwhile, another front will stall along the
northern Gulf from the Florida Big Bend to south Texas Sat and
Sun. Weak low pressure will form along the front over northeast
Mexico Mon. Looking ahead, strong northerly winds and rough seas
will follow a cold front moving across the Gulf late Tue through
Wed, as the low pressure moves to the northeast of the region.
Winds may reach gale force over the far west- central and
southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico Tue and Tue night as the
front moves south.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Gulf of Mexico across the
Yucatan Channel to northern Belize. Moderate southerly winds and
seas are noted in the NW Caribbean. High pressure north of the
basin continues to promote moderate to fresh E winds and moderate
seas across the south-central part of the basin. Strong winds are
noted near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the Caribbean,
gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary stalling across the Yucatan
Channel this afternoon will lift north of the region as a warm
front Mon. High pressure building north of the front will support
fresh to strong trade winds and building seas across mainly the
south- central Caribbean from late Sun through mid week. Looking
ahead, another cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by
late Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the Gale
Warning and Significant Swell event in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends off the northeast coast of Florida from
31N76W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is observed east of the front N of 27N and W of 70W.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds are present ahead of the front to
70W veering to NW behind the front. Moderate to rough seas prevail
north of 28N between 70W and the east coast of Florida. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas are
present from 70W east to 53W around a 1018 mb high pressure
centered near 26N58W.

Another cold front extends across the central Atlantic from a
triple point near 33N35W curving westward to 26N55W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is observed south of the front to 18N
and east to 25W. Earlier scatterometer pass reveals a small area
of strong NW winds behind the front north of 30N between 40W and
42W and moderate to fresh W to NW winds north of 24N between 35W
and 53W. Farther east, a stationary front stretches southwestward
from 31N17W to 18N36W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
east of this feature to the West African coast, north of 10N.
Moderate to fresh S to SW prevail north of 25N and east of 35W to
17W. Across the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate trades
and moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front off the Florida coast will reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba early Sun. Fresh to strong winds
near the front north of 28N will diminish this afternoon, but
rough seas will persist tonight. The portion of the front north of
27N and east of 70W will continue east of the area through Tue,
while the southern portion west of 70W will lift north as a
dissipating warm front Mon. Looking ahead, another front will move
off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach from Bermuda to
central Cuba by late Wed.

$$
AReinhart
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