[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110433
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N24W to 18N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the front in the
far NE Atlantic. Strong to gale-force winds are present north of
25N and between 20W and 45W. Large NW swell has been generated
from the storm system associated with this front, with seas
greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of 18N and between 22W
and 52W, peaking around 23 ft near 31N37W. The winds will slowly
diminish, falling below gale force Thu morning. The large swell
will slowly subside while propagating eastward through the end of
the week.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off
the Texas coast into the Gulf Fri morning. Winds to gale force
and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night.
Winds will diminish below gale force late Fri and below strong
force Sat afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N16W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 03N33W and to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N and between 21W and
30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the western Gulf of Mexico.

A weak 1018 mb high pressure near Florida dominates the Gulf of
Mexico. High clouds move across the basin, but no deep convection
is noted. The weak pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and lower pressures in Mexico sustain moderate to fresh
southerly winds in the western Gulf, mainly west of 93W. Moderate
seas are prevalent in these waters. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas have been diminishing across the
Gulf as high pressure builds over the central Gulf following a
cold front that moved through the basin last night. Southerly
winds will increase over the northern Gulf by late Thu ahead of
the next cold front expected to move off the Texas coast Fri
morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front
over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
diminish Sat and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin
and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Another front may
move off the Texas coast on Mon, followed by gale-force winds
over the western Gulf Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridging is evident across the Caribbean Sea, supporting only
transient pockets of low-level moisture that move westward with
the trade winds and produce isolated showers. The pressure
gradient between the 1028 mb high pressure well east of Bermuda
and lower pressures in northern South America support strong
easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of
5-8 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, frontal trough extending from western Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras will dissipate through tonight. High pressure
building in the wake of the frontal trough will support fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean into Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along
with building seas over the northwest Caribbean Thu night and Fri
ahead of a cold front expected to stall across the Yucatan Channel
Sat and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Feature section for details about the
central Atlantic gale warning and associated significant swell.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N68W and
continues southwestward to 28N73W, where it becomes a stationary
front to western Cuba. No deep convection is noted near this
front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are found ahead of the
front to 58W and north of 28N. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 7-12 ft are present behind
the front. The highest seas are occurring near 31N72W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N24W to 18N43W, where it
becomes a shear line that continues westward to near the Leeward
Islands. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the front
in the far NE Atlantic. Aside from the gale-force winds and very
rough seas discussed in the Special Features section, fresh to
near gale-force winds are noted behind the front, east of 47W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured fresh to strong
NE winds north of the shear line to 23N and east of 64W. Seas in
these waters are 8-12 ft.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by broad ridging that
supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of
18N and west of 40W. Seas are 7-10 ft in the area described.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough
seas to 12 ft accompany a cold front extending from 31N68W to
27N72W where it stalls and then continues SW to western Cuba.
Winds will diminish through tonight, however large swell will
linger north of 27N into Thu night. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas tonight, and then stationary from
there to western Cuba. The northern portion of the front north of
27N will continue to move east of the area through Fri night,
while the southern portion lifts northward as a warm front across
the waters west of 70W through Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will
increase along with building seas off northeast Florida Fri night
ahead of the next cold front, which is expected to move off the
northeast Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds
will diminish through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to
western Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N. A weak front
may move off the northeast coast Mon.

$$
Delgado
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