[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front in the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida this
evening. A recent scatterometer pass reveals gale-force S winds
are present offshore northern Florida north of 29N and west of
78W. These gale-force winds will continue into this afternoon
before diminishing by this evening. Seas are forecast to build to
around 13 ft by midday today within the area of strongest winds.
Conditions will improve Sun into Sun night ahead of the next
strong cold front early next week.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure ridging will build in
to the north of the Caribbean on Sun. The gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures over Colombia will lead to gale-force NE
to E winds Sun night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas
will peak around 12 ft with the strongest winds. Winds tonight and
Mon night will peak at near-gale force in the same area.

Significant Swell Event: A mid-latitude low pressure in the north
Atlantic is generating a large region of NW swell. Seas greater
than 12 ft extend north of 29N and between 32W and 63W, peaking
near 15 ft between 55W and 60W. This large swell will spread
toward the southeast through the weekend. The sea heights will
peak at 14 to 16 ft north of 29N between 35W and 57W through Sun
afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the three Special Features discussed above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 05N11W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W
to 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N
between 14W and 28W and from 06N southward between 31W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15Z, a cold front extends from the Big Bend of Florida to
20N94W with a squall line ahead of the front from near Clearwater,
Florida to 25N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed north of 25N between the squall line and
the west coast of Florida. Strong SW to S force winds are
occurring ahead of the front, with up to near-gale force possible
within the area of strongest convection. Seas are 6 to 10 ft
across the NE Gulf of Mexico but will subside significantly by
this afternoon. Across the remainder of the basin behind the
front, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
Cedar Key, FL to Veracruz around noon today, then become
stationary Sun afternoon from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W.
Strong to gale force southerly winds, and scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico through early this morning. Some of these
thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Winds
and seas will subside tonight. Looking ahead, a very strong cold
front is expected to enter the western Gulf Mon evening and move
southeast of the basin Tue night. Strong to near gale force SE to
S winds will begin in advance of the cold front, Sun night into
early Mon, as a warm front advances northward across the basin,
which should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Then,
near gale force winds are expected across most of the Gulf of
Mexico on both sides of the cold front Mon afternoon through Tue,
with several areas of embedded gale force winds likely along with
very rough seas. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely
accompany the cold front over portions of the northern Gulf.
Conditions quiet down Wed and Wed night as high pressure in the
wake of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will
allow for moderate return flow to set up over the far western
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong high pressure system north of the basin extends
southward into the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the development of
deep convection. Strong ENE to E trades prevail in the south-
central Caribbean offshore Colombia, where seas are 7 to 10 ft.
Fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found in the Gulf of
Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate to fresh with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the
forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near
the coast of Colombia are forecast to reach gale force Sun night.
Fresh to strong southeast winds will continue in the northwestern
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through mid morning as a cold front
remains north of the area. Looking ahead, SE to S winds in the
northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase again early next
week as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds
will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts E across
the central Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant swell in the
Atlantic.

Between the east coast of Florida and 73W and north of 24N, a
recent scatterometer pass reveals strong to near-gale force S
winds are present with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Scattered moderate
convection extends from offshore the east coast of Florida, mainly
north of 26N and west of 73W. Farther south, across the Straits
of Florida, SE winds are moderate with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

A 1025 mb high pressure centered near 31N64W extends surface
ridging southeastward, leading to gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds north of 27N between 50W and 73W However, large N to NE
swell within this area is producing 8 to 12 ft seas. East of the
ridge, A cold front extends from 31N40W to 23N56W, where it
continues as a stationary front to 22N70W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 24N ahead of the front to 30W.
Fresh to strong W to NW winds are north of 25N between 36W and
52W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft.

Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N23W to 30N24W,
where it continues as stationary to 27N36W. Winds near this front
are mostly gentle. Surface ridging extends ahead of the front,
allowing for gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft north
of 19N. South of 19N, moderate trades and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail,
except for fresh within convection along the ITCZ described
above.

For the forecast W of 55W, southerly gale force winds are
offshore northern Florida in advance of a cold front that is
expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida this
evening. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South
Florida early Sun, from near 31N58W to the central Bahamas early
Mon and from near 23N55W to 22N70W early Tue. After the gale winds
end late this afternoon, fresh to strong winds are expected on
either side of this front N of 28N as it moves eastward. Looking
ahead to Mon night through Wed, gale force southerly winds are
expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters
east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly
winds are likely elsewhere N of 26N and W of 65W. By late Wed,
this next front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W
to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba, but very rough seas
will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the
Bahamas. These conditions will slowly subside Thu and Thu night.

$$
Nepaul
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