[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends
from SE Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen on satellite and radar imagery
north of 26N and east of 89W. Surface observations and satellite-
derived wind data indicate that strong to gale-force southerly
winds are occurring ahead of the front and north of 27N. Seas in
these waters are 6-11 ft. Strong to gale force southerly winds,
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to precede
the cold front across the north-central and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight into early Sat. Some of these thunderstorms could
be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Gale-force winds will end
early Sat morning and conditions will quickly improve through Sat.

Atlantic Gale Warning: The strong cold front in the northern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to move across the waters off northeast
Florida by late Sat. Southerly winds offshore Florida will
increase to strong late tonight and to gale force on Sat morning off
northern Florida. Seas are forecast to build to around 13 ft on
Sat within the area of strongest winds. Conditions will improve
Sun into Mon ahead of the next strong cold front.

Significant Swell Event: A hurricane-force low in the north
Atlantic is generating a large region of NW swell. Seas greater
than 12 ft extend north of 29N and between 45W and 65W, peaking
near near 14 ft around 31N51W. This large swell will spread to
the south and east through the weekend. By Sun morning, the area
of 12 ft seas or greater will be located north of 26N between 35W
and 51W. The sea heights will peak at 14 to 16 ft north of 29N
between 37W and 55W from Sat afternoon through Sun night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the three Special Features discussed above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W
to 04N33W and to 01N50W. A few showers are noted near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf.

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tuxpan, Mexico.
This system is associated with the gale center discussed in the
Special Features. No deep convection is evident on satellite
imagery outside of the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between the
1028 mb high pressure system over Cape Hatteras and the gale
center also support moderate to strong southerly winds ahead of
the front, especially east of 90W and south of 27N. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are noted behind the frontal boundary. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will extend from
Tallahassee, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Sat, then weaken Sat
night as it reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to the central Bay of
Campeche. Strong to gale force southerly winds, and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the
north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Some of
these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds.
Winds and seas will subside Sat night. Looking ahead, a very
strong cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf by Mon
evening and move southeast of the basin Tue night. Strong to near-
gale force SE to S winds will begin in advance of the front, Sun
night into early Mon. Then, near-gale force winds are expected
across most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the front Mon
night and Tue, with several areas of embedded gale force winds
likely along with very rough seas. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front over portions of the northern
Gulf. Conditions quiet down Wed and Wed night as high pressure in
the wake of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will
allow for moderate return flow to set up over the far western
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong high pressure system north of the Greater Antilles
extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the
development of deep convection. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass show fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Fresh to
strong E-SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the western
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, mainly west of 83W. Moderate to
locally strong easterly winds are occurring in the north-central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are 2-5 ft in the
area described. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the
forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near
the coast of Colombia could reach gale force Sun night. Fresh to
strong southeast winds will continue in the northwestern Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras through early Sat as a cold front remains
north of the area. Looking ahead, southerly winds in the
northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase again early next
week as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds
will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts E across
the central Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant Swell in the
Atlantic.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N49W and
continues southwestward to 24N56W, where it becomes a stationary
front to 22N69W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is present ahead of the cold front to 36W and north of 24N.
Information about wind and seas is included in the Special
Features section. Farther east, another cold front extends from
31N26W to 27N32W, where it transitions into a stationary front to
26N42W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted just
ahead of the front and north of 30N. Seas behind the front are 5-8
ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad
ridging, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft in the deep tropics, mainly south of 20N and west
of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, southerly winds offshore Florida will
increase to strong late tonight and to gale force on Sat off
northern Florida in advance of a stronger cold front that is
expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by late
Sat. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South
Florida early Sun, from near 31N57W to the central Bahamas early
Mon and from near 23N55W to 23N70W early Tue. On Sat night through
Mon, after the gales end, fresh to strong winds are expected on
either side of this front N of 29N as it moves eastward. Looking
ahead to Tue and Tue night, gale force southerly winds are
expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters
east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly
winds are likely elsewhere N of 26N and W of 65W. By late Wed,
this next front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W
to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected at that time N of 28N between the
front and 60W, and along with rough seas E and NE of the Bahamas.

$$
Delgado
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