[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the
Gulf of Mexico Fri into Sat. Strong to near gale force southerly
winds and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the
cold front across the northern half of the Gulf, moving from west
to east Fri through Fri night, with gale-force winds possible Fri
night in the north-central to northeastern Gulf. Some of these
thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Seas
will build to 11 ft in the northern Gulf Fri night. Condition will
quickly improve Sat.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move across
the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat, preceded by strong
to gale force southerly winds east of Florida on Sat. This front
is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun,
from near 31N59W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near
24N55W to 24N68W early Tue. On Sat night through Sun night, fresh
to strong winds are expected on either side of this front north
of 29N. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft late Sat.

Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell prevails over portions of
the SW N and central Atlantic waters N of 23N behind a cold front
that extends from 31N35W to 22N70W. Seas are peaking near 14 ft.
This area of large swell will propagate eastward through Friday,
while subsiding slowly subsiding. The sea heights are forecast to
be less than 12 feet on Friday afternoon. More large NW swell,
that will be generated by the next storm system, will move into
the waters that are to the N of 29N between 56W and 65W on Friday
afternoon. This large swell will spread to the south and to the
east through the weekend. The sea heights that will be with this
swell will peak near 17 feet on Saturday night, roughly from 30N
northward between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W and continues to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from
07N17W to 03N33W to 00N50W. Isolated to scattered showers are
seen from 04N to 07N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the northern Gulf.

A stationary front is draped across the Florida Straits, becoming
a dissipating stationary front near 23N88W and extending to near
Tuxpan, Mexico. Latest satellite imagery depict a few weak showers
near this boundary. Elsewhere, a dry airmass dominates resulting
in no deep convection. The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb
high pressure over the Ohio Valley and lower pressures in the
southern US and northern Mexico sustain fresh to locally strong
SE winds in the western Gulf of Mexico, especially north of 22N
and west of 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. In the
remainder of the Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move
northeastward as a warm front on Fri as low pressure forms along
the Louisiana coast and moves eastward, dragging a cold front
across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will extend from Panama
City, FL to the central Bay of Campeche near 22N93W early Sat,
then weaken Sat night as it reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to 22N93W.
Strong to near gale force southerly winds and scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the
northern half of the Gulf of Mexico, moving from west to east Fri
through Fri night, with gale- force winds possible Fri night in
the north-central to northeastern Gulf. Some of these
thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Looking
ahead, the next cold front is expected Mon night, preceded and
followed by strong to near gale force winds and building seas.
Winds may reach gale force speeds Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the islands dominates the Caribbean Sea,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. However, pockets
of shallow moisture traverse the central and western Caribbean
waters, producing isolated, light showers. The pressure gradient
between the 1030 mb ridge in the Ohio Valley and lower pressures
in northern Colombia result in fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore Colombia.
Recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh
easterly breezes in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Seas
are 2-5 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the
forecast period. Southeast winds will increase to fresh to strong
in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Fri night into
early Sat as a cold front passes north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant Swell in the Atlantic.

A cold front enters our waters near 31N69W and continues
southwestward to the NW Bahamas, where it becomes a stationary
front. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong NW winds
behind the front and fresh to locally near-gale southerly winds
ahead of the front to 57W and north of 26N. Seas in these waters
are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N67W.

Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N35W to 25N46W,
where it transitions into a stationary front and continues
southwestward to 22N70W. Strong convection is noted ahead of the
front to 31W, north of 27N. Fresh to strong winds are evident
north of 27N and between 31W and 44W. Seas in the area described
are 8-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N44W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive 1026 mb
high pressure system near the Azores. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain
fresh to strong easterly trade winds south of 18N and between 30W
and 55W. Wave heights are in the 5-8 ft range in the area
described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front east of
Florida will extend from near 26N55W to 23N67W and stationary to
South Florida Fri evening. Strong winds and rough seas will impact
waters north of 27N on both sides of this front through Fri
evening. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the
waters off northeast Florida by late Sat, preceded by strong to
gale force southerly winds east of Florida on Sat. This front is
forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun,
from near 31N59W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near
24N55W to 24N68W early Tue. On Sat night through Sun night, fresh
to strong winds are expected on either side of this front north of
29N. Looking ahead to Tue and Tue night, gale force southerly
winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over
the waters east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force
southerly winds are likely elsewhere north of 27N and west of 65W.

$$
Delgado
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