[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Large Swell in the Atlantic Ocean...

Large NW swell prevails over portions of the SW N and central
Atlantic waters N of 23N behind a cold front that extends from
31N39W SW to the southern Bahamas offshore waters. This area of
large swell will propagate eastward through Friday, while
subsiding slowly subsiding. The sea heights are forecast to be
less than 12 feet on Friday afternoon. More large NW swell, that
will be generated by the next storm system, will move into the
waters that are to the N of 29N between 56W and 65W on Friday
afternoon. This large swell will spread to the south and to the
east through the weekend. The sea heights that will be with this
swell will peak near 18 feet on Saturday night, roughly from 30N
northward between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through 06N11W to 04N26W to 01N43W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 10N between 06W and 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 23N86W where it
stalls and continues SW to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate NE to E
winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range are behind the front over the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico or E of 90W. Surface ridging
has started to build along the northern gulf offshore waters and
this is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 90W with
seas to 5 ft. Scattered to isolated showers are likely along the
northern basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the Gulf
this evening. Low pressure, with an associated cold front is
forecast to move across the basin Fri into Sat, bringing strong
winds and the potential for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across most of the basin. Looking ahead, the next
front is expected starting next week, preceded and followed by
strong to near gale force winds and building seas. Winds may reach
gale force speeds Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The associated pressure gradient between surface ridging extending
to the northern Caribbean and lower pressure over Colombia,
continue to support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and
central Caribbean, with locally strong winds just off the coast of
Colombia. Seas over these regions are in the 3-6 ft range, being
highest in the south-central basin.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the
forecast period. South winds will increase to fresh to strong in
the northwestern Caribbean Fri night into early Sat as a cold
front passes north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about
large swell.

A cold front stretches from near 31N69W SW to Homestead, Florida
to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas to 9 ft follow this front N of 27N. Fresh to near gale-force
SW winds are also ahead of the front to 60W with seas in the 8-11
ft range in long period NW swell. Farther east, surface high
pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 27N58W. East of the high, a
cold front extends from 31N39W SW to the southern Bahamas adjacent
waters. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of this front to 22W
and N of 23N. Fresh winds are ahead and behind the front with seas
in the 8 to 14 ft in long period NW swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the rough seas will shift east of the
area this evening. The cold front will reach from just west of
Bermuda to the NE Bahamas tonight, then move across the SE waters
Fri. Strong winds and rough seas will impact the northern waters
on both sides of this front. A stronger cold front is expected to
move across the waters off northeast Florida Sat, possibly
preceded by gale-force southerly winds. This front is forecast to
reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near
31N59W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 31N43W to
near 23N58W early Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected on
either side of this front early next week. On Tue and Tue night,
gale-force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another
strong cold front over the waters E of northeast Florida, while
strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere
over most of the western forecast waters.

$$
Ramos
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