[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010910
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast tonight
into Tue, then through the western part of the area by late Tue.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either
side of this front N of 27N through Wed night when the front will
move E of the area. Winds will reach gale force west of the front
N of 30N Tue night and Wed. The front will usher in a set of large
set of NW swell, with seas greater than 12 ft following the
front. Seas will peak near 17 ft during the period of gale force
winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force Wed, but
the area of 12 ft seas will continue to propagate from west to
east over the waters N of 28N through the end of the week.

Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N17W to 03N23W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 16W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1024 mb high center over the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh southerly
return flow is noted W of 94W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range W of 94W, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico weather will weaken today, allowing a cold front to move
into the NW basin. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail
early today over the far W Gulf tonight ahead of the cold front.
The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near the coast
of NE Mexico tonight, then stall from central Florida to the NW
Gulf Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow
behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf Wed. This front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche Wed night, then move SE of the basin Thu.
Fresh to strong winds will follow the front in the northern and
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from Hispaniola to
Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Windward passage
and south of Jamaica. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W of
the front. Fresh to strong winds are also over the waters N of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in
the 5-7 ft range W of the front, 7-8 ft over the waters N of
Colombia, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today.
Fresh to locally strong winds over the Windward Passage, will
diminish through today. High pressure building north of the front
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through Wed night.
Moderate to fresh trades are possible Thu through Fri for the
central and eastern Caribbean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a gale
warning in the Atlantic waters.

A cold front from near 29N55W to 25N65W becomes stationary to the
Windward Passage. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N68W.
Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere W of the front. Seas are in the 7-8 ft
range N of 27N and W of the front to 70W, with seas in the 4-6 ft
range elsewhere W of the front. Farther east, dissipating low
pressure is centered near 26N41W. Moderate winds are within 60 nm
east of the low. A 1019 mb high is centered father east near
27N29W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in
the 4-7 ft over the waters east of the front.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slide E of the
area by Tue, while the stationary front dissipates. A stronger
cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast tonight
into Tue, then through the western part of the area by late Tue.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either
side of this front N of 27N through Wed night when the front will
move E of the area. Winds will reach gale force west of the front
N of 30N Tue night and Wed. A third cold front is forecast to move
off the Florida coast Thu, extending from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas Thu night, then from near 31N55W to central Cuba Fri
night.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net