[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
a 1036 mb high pressure located just northeast of the Azores
combined with lower pressures across NW Africa is resulting in
gale-force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco that will
persist through late Wed. Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to
gale force winds in the eastern portions of the marine zones
Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias. Seas are forecast to be peaking
currently near 19 ft between the Canary Islands and the coast of
Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A 1039 mb high pressure centered south of
Newfoundland will continue to move slowly northeastward into the
far North Atlantic during the few days. However, another strong
ridge will build late this week over the eastern United States.
The pressure gradient between persistent low pressure in northwest
Colombia and the associated ridge will result in fresh to strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will pulse
nightly to gale speeds off northwest Colombia through Fri night.
Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 12-14 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N13.5W and continues southwestward to 01N28W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 06N and between
10W and 23W and south of 03.5N between 28W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge over the NW Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward
to central Florida and then westward across the Gulf of Mexico.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures across
northern Mexico is resulting in fresh southerly winds across much
of the Gulf waters W of 85W. Seas are 5-8 ft across the NW half of
the basin and 3-5 ft across the SE half. Moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds are found within 120 nm of the northern coast
of Yucatan, along with seas of 4-5 ft. No significant convection
is evident across the basin. The southerly return flow is
maintaining light smoke from ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico
across the western third of the basin.

Scattered to broken high clouds streaming eastward are noted
north of 25N and west of 86W. These clouds are due to a very
pronounced southern jet stream branch that stretches from the
eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward and eastward across the
northern Mexico and most of Texas.

For the forecast, the ridge currently across the basin will shift
E, allowing a cold front to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon. Ahead of the front, fresh southerly winds will prevail
through midday over the Gulf W of 85W. Patchy fog is also expected
ahead of the front offshore Texas and SW Louisiana. The cold
front will sink into the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu, then
stall Thu night from near Tampa Bay to offshore of Corpus Christi,
TX to just N of Tampico, Mexico, before lifting N on Fri. A weak
N to S aligned trough will then meander across the W Gulf Fri
through Sat before dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details
on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia.

The strong high pressure north of the Caribbean extends a ridge
southward into central Florida. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is resulting in
strong to gale-force easterly winds in the south-central
Caribbean S of 13N, as discussed in the Special Features.
Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident in
the north-central Caribbean waters, and the Gulf of Honduras,
while fresh to strong winds prevail through the Windward Passage.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-5 ft are
occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Across NW portions, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. No deep
convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will shift slowly E across
the western Atlantic into late week, as new weak high pressure
develops SW of Bermuda on Thu. Fresh to strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will expand to
dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the Gulf
of Honduras Fri through the weekend, while a strengthening ridge
builds southward. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force nightly
offshore Colombia through at least Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for the Gale Warning in
the NE Atlantic.

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N54W and
continues southwestward to 24N60W, where it transitions into a
dissipating stationary trough to Hispaniola. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are occurring N of 23N and within 210 nm W of
frontal boundary, and from 20N to the Atlantic coasts of the
Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Moderate to locally fresh NE
to E winds are present west of the front to 70W and then westward
through the Bahamas. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. The
remainder of the SW north Atlantic is dominated by a ridge
positioned south of Newfoundland. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures over the central US support fresh to
locally strong southerly winds north of 29N and west of 74W. Seas
in the area described are 4-6 ft.

Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 33W, from 21N to
31N. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The rest of the
basin is under the influence of a strong high pressure system NE
of the Azores. Fresh to gale-force NE-E winds are evident north
of 20N and east of 35W as described in the Special Features
section. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are
present over much of the central Atlantic to 30W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening frontal trough will
drift W today and dissipate. The ridge dominating the area today
will shift slowly eastward across the western Atlantic through
Thu before new weak high pressure develops SW of Bermuda. A cold
front will sink into the NW waters Thu morning, then stall Fri
morning from around 29N70W to near Daytona Beach, Florida, before
lifting N as a warm front Fri and Fri night. E of 70W, the front
will continue moving S-SE and bring strong NE winds across waters
N of 23N and E of 65W this weekend.

$$
Stripling
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