[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The current METEO-FRANCE, consists of: gale-force winds, until
28/1200 UTC, in the following marine zones: Agadir, Tarfaya,
and Canarias. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE forecast, at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2, for details.

Very rough seas are from the Canary Islands northward from 20W
eastward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and rough seas, tonight, from 11N to
13N between 74W and 77W. Elsewhere: from 10N to 13N between 73W
and 78W, NE strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas. The
gale-force winds will slow down during the daytime hours of
Wednesday. The gale-force wind speeds will return to the area on
Wednesday night.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N10W, to the Equator along 19W, to 02S28W. The ITCZ
continues from 02S28W, to 03S36W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the south of 08N13W 06N23W
06N40W 07N52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A ridge is in
the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate seas are in the NW quadrant. Slight seas are elsewhere.

Broad moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
area.

Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge across central Florida and
then westward along 26N to S Texas. This ridge will shift E-NE
through Wed, allowing a cold front to enter the NW Gulf Wed. Ahead
of the front, fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will
prevail over the western Gulf today, then expand into eastern
portions Tue night into Wed. The cold front will sink into the
northern Gulf Wed night into Thu, then stall from near Tampa Bay
to the mouth of the Rio Grande Thu night, before lifting N Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds are from the coast of
Colombia to 13N between 73W and 78W. Mostly fresh to some moderate
NE winds are in the rest of the central one-third of the area.
Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-
third of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 80W
westward. Rough seas are in the coastal waters of Colombia between
74W and 77W. Moderate seas cover the rest of the southern half of
the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 27/1200 UTC, are: 1.21 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure across the western Atlantic will move E-NE through
Thu night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central
portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages tonight
through Thu. Strong trade winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to
gale-force at night, Tue night through Fri night. Strong high
pressure across the western Atlantic will build southward toward
the basin Thu night through Sat to freshen the trade wind flow
across much of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N50W 23N60W, to 20N70W off the
coast of the Dominican Republic, to the Windward Passage just off
the coast of SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate is within 135 nm on either side of the stationary front.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is on either side of the
stationary front. A surface ridge extends from a 37N59W 1030 mb
high pressure center, through 31N69W, to south Florida. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the stationary
front. A 1038 mb high pressure center is near 40N23W.

Near gale-force NE winds are from 27N northward between the Canary
Islands and 24W. Strong NE winds are from 20N to 27N from 25W
eastward. Strong NE winds are: from 22N to 26N between 32W and
38W; from the stationary front to 28N between the front and 65W;
and from 19N to 21N between 72W and 75W including in the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 20N to 27N between
30W and 40W; and from 27N northward between 45W and 55W. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A weakening stationary front extends from 26N55W to the N coast
of Hispaniola and will and gradually dissipate into Wed. High
pressure centered Bermuda extends a ridge SW through central
Florida. The high will slide NE across the W Atlantic through Wed
night. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters Thu, reach
from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida Thu night, then begin to
drift northward to the W of 70W Fri through Sat. Strong high
pressure across the NW Atlantic will build southward across the
regional waters during this time and produce strong easterly winds
E of 75W Fri into Sat night.

$$
mt/sk
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