[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0454 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening
high pressure northeast of the Azores combined with low pressure
across the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly
winds near the coast of Morocco through Tue night. Meteo-
France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the
eastern portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and
Canarias. Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and
the coast of Morocco. Seas will build to the range of 15-20 ft
on Tue between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France
at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2
for details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered near Bermuda will
continue to move northeastward and strengthen modestly over the
next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent low
pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will
create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across
the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and
are expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft
during the period of gales. Winds are then expected to reach
gale-force again Wed night and Thu night, with peak seas
building to 9-13 ft each night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of
Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 01N21W.
The ITCZ begins near 01N21W and extends west-southwest to near
03S37W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of
the trough between 19W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered well E of the area. A ridge
extends west-southwestward from it to the central Gulf while
broad low pressure is over the central U.S. and Mexico. The
gradient between the high pressure and low pressure is
supporting moderate to fresh southeasterly flow and seas of 3-5
ft west of 90W. Light to gentle southeast flow and lower seas of
1-3 ft are east of 90W. Numerous agricultural fires across
Mexico are producing hazy conditions per surface observations
across some of the near and offshore waters within 120 nm of the
coast from Merida to Brownsville.

For the forecast, high pressure centered well E of the area
extends a ridge across central Florida and then westward along
26N to S Texas. This ridge will slide E through Tue night,
allowing a cold front to enter the NW Gulf. Ahead of the front,
fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will develop over
the western Gulf tonight and Tue, then expand into eastern
portions Tue night into Wed. The cold front will sag into the
northern Gulf late Wed, then stall Thu from the Florida Big Bend
to near Tampico, Mexico, before lifting N Thu night into Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details
on the Gale Warning for the offshore waters of Colombia for
starting Tue night.

Recent ASCAT data passes revealed fresh to strong northeast
winds over the Windward Passage and over the offshore water of
Colombia. Similar winds are found in the Mona Passage. NE winds
become gentle to moderate over the northwest Caribbean Sea.
While seas are 2-4 ft in these areas. A pre-frontal trough
extends from the central Atlantic near 22N58W southwestward to
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds are east of the trough, where seas are 2
to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are west of the
trough along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate northeast to east
winds are over the central Caribbean. Seas are 4 to 5 ft, except
5-9 ft offshore Colombia due to northeast to east swell.

For the forecast, the remnants of the cold front that has
extended from NW Hispaniola to W of Jamaica will dissipate Tue
morning. High pressure across the western Atlantic will move E-
NE across the tonight through Thu night and produce fresh to
strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and
through the Atlantic Passages. Strong trade winds offshore of
Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night through
Thu night. Strong high pressure across the western Atlantic will
build southward toward the basin Thu night through Sat to
freshen the trade wind flow across north-central and eastern
portions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning

A weak cold front is analyzed from near 31N52W southwestward to
23N60W to 20N70W and to the northern coast of the Hispaniola,
reaching the Windward Passage. Broken to overcast low and mid-
level clouds along with broken high clouds are noted within 180
nm southeast of the front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
ahead of the front north of 25N and east to near 42W. Scattered
showers are depicted north of 25N, and isolated showers are
possible south of 25N. A pre-frontal trough extends from near
28N50W southwestward to the vicinity of the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands. Isolated showers are possible near this trough.
The gradient related to high pressure west of the front is
supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds south of 25N. Seas
of 6-8 ft exist from 22N to 27N between 50W-68W 6 to 10 ft seas
are north of 27N between 57W-64W. Lower seas of 3-5 ft seas are
elsewhere west of 73W.

The eastern Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure
of 1038 mb analyzed well north of the area near 42N23W. A ridge
extends from this high southwestward to 28N48W. Between 48W and
the Lesser Antilles, winds are gentle to moderate in speeds
along with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate trade winds and seas
exceeding 7 to 9 ft are generally east of 48W and south of 20N.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue north
of 20N and between 21W-45W. East of 21W, fresh to locally strong
northeast winds and seas of 10 to 11 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
stall through Tue, then gradually dissipate through Wed as it
drifts W. High pressure near Bermuda extends a ridge SW through
Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high will slide NE
across the W Atlantic through Wed night. The next cold front
will sink into the NW waters Thu then stall from 30N55W to
28N70W to central Florida Fri morning.

$$
KRV
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