[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening
high pressure NE of the Azores combined with low pressure across
the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly winds
near the coast of Morocco Mon night through Tue night. Meteo-
France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern
portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias.
Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast
of Morocco. Seas will build to 15 to 20 ft on Tue between the
Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure across the NW Bahamas early
this morning will slide northeastward and strengthen modestly
over the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent
low pressure over NW Colombia and the associated ridge will create
an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and are
expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft during the
period of gales. Winds are then expected to reach gale-force again
Wed night and Thu night, with peak seas building to 10-12 ft each
night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 09N13W and extends
to 01N24W. The ITCZ begins farther south near 04S26W and extends
to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb is over the NW Bahamas and extends a
ridge westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate southerly flow
and 2 to 4 ft seas are west of 90W. Light to gentle SE flow and
1 to 3 ft seas are east of 9)W. Numerous agricultural fires
across Mexico produce light smoke across much of the near and
offshore waters within 180 nm of the coast from Merida to
Brownsville.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the NW Bahamas will
slide NE across the Atlantic through Wed. Fresh to locally stong
southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf today
through tonight, then expand into eastern portions Tue through
Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf
Wed afternoon. This front is expected to reach from the Florida
Big Bend region to near Tampico, Mexico by midday Thu, then stall
and lift northward Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on the Gale Warning offshore Colombia for Tuesday
Night.

The weakening front extending across the NW Caribbean Sea has
dissipated. Moderate NE winds are noted in the lee of Cuba,
becoming light to gentle over the remainder of the NW Caribbean
Sea. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. A surface trough extends from E Puerto
Rico to the NW Colombian basin. Gentile to moderate easterlies
are east of the trough, where seas are 2 to 4 ft, and mainly
moderate NE winds are noted west of the trough with 3 to 5 ft
seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also noted exiting the
Mona Passage, south of the Dominican Republic and offshore
northern Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure will move ENE across the western
Atlantic tonight into Thu night and produce fresh to strong trade
winds across central portions of the basin and through the
Atlantic Passages. Strong trade winds offshore of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on the Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning

A cold front extends from 31N53W southwestward to the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers prevail
within 240 nm east of the boundary, north of 24N. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass revealed fresh southerly winds
ahead of the front, north of 27N and west of 48W. High pressure
center of 1013 mb is west of the front, supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds south of 24N. 4 to 6 ft seas are from 22N to 27N
between 50W and 68W. 6 to 9 ft seas are north of 27N between 57W
and 64W. 3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere west of the front.

The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1037 mb high pressure
centered near 43N25W. A ridge extends from this high pressure
southwestward to 23N55W. Between 48W and the Lesser Antilles,
winds are moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate trade winds and
seas exceeding 7 to 9 ft are generally east of 48W and south of
20N. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas
prevail between north of 20N and east of 45W to 25W. East of 25W,
fresh to locally strong NE winds, and 10 to 12 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in westerly swell
following the cold front will gradually subside through tonight.
The front will stall and weaken from 27N55W to just N of the Mona
Passage by Tue. High pressure currently over the NW Bahamas will
slide NE across the W Atlantic into Wed night. The next cold front
will sink into the NW waters Thu and reach from 30N55WW to 28N70W
to central Florida Fri morning.

$$
Mora
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