[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260445
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening
high pressure NE of the Azores combined with low pressure across
the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly winds near
the coast of Morocco Mon night through Tue night. Meteo-France is
forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions
of the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Expect northerly gales
from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast of Morocco. Seas will
build to 15 to 20 ft on Tue between the Canary Islands and the
coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N14W to 04N20W to 01N27W.
The ITCZ extends from 01N27W to 0.5N29W. Isolated moderate
convection is depicted along the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near
25.5N85W. Light to gentle winds and seas 2 to 3 ft prevail north
of 23N and east of 91.5W including the Straits of Florida.
Moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are present north of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Over the far western Gulf, moderate to
locally fresh SE to S return flow has developed, with seas to 3
to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure over the E
Gulf will drift NE tonight and enter the western Atlantic Mon.
Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf
Mon through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue
through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
NW Gulf Wed. This front is expected to reach from the Florida
Big Bend region to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning
then stall east to west across the central Gulf Thu night and
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends through the Windward Passage to
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are behind the front, over portions of the NW
Caribbean. In the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh NE
winds, with locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas
in this area are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to
moderate with 3 to 5 ft seas. Patches of cloudiness with
isolated light showers are noted near and to the south of
Jamaica, with another patch extending from the Mona passage
southward to 12N.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will sink slowly SE
tonight through Mon night and gradually stall from the NE coast
of the Dominican Republic and Jamaica before dissipating Tue.
High pressure will move E-NE across the western Atlantic Mon
night through Thu and produce fresh to strong trade winds across
central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages.
Gales are possible each night offshore of Colombia Tue night
through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W southwestward through the
Windward Passage. A pre-frontal trough is about 140 nm ahead of
the front. A secondary cold front extends from 31N59W to the
Bahamas. Scattered  moderate convection is noted north of 23.5N
between 53W and 58W. Fresh winds are of the first cold front,
mainly north of 29N between 50W and 53.5W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft
north of 25N between 54.5W and 70W. West of 70W, winds are
gentle or weaker and seas are 6 ft or less.

The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1031 mb high pressure
centered near 34N35.5W. A ridge extends from this high pressure
to 21N57W. Between 47W and the Lesser Antilles, winds are
moderate with 6 to 7 ft seas. Fresh trade winds and seas
exceeding 7 ft are generally east of 52W. Moderate to fresh NE
to ENE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail between 20W and 35W,
from 13N to 30N. North of 20N and east of 25W, fresh to
locally strong NE winds and 10 to 12 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N55W
southwestward through the Windward Passage. Behind the front and
N of 29N, strong NW to W winds will prevail tonight. Rough seas
in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft
reaching as far S as 25N early tonight before gradually
subsiding through Mon night. The front will gradually stall and
weaken from 27N55W to the NE coast of Dominican Republic by Tue.
High pressure will exit Florida Mon and slide E-NE across the W
Atlantic through Wed. The next cold front will sink into the NW
waters Thu.

$$
KRV
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