[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening
high pressure NE of the Azores combined with low pressure across
the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly winds near
the coast of Morocco Mon night through Tue night. Meteo-France is
forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions
of the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Expect northerly gales
from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast of Morocco. Seas will
build to 15 to 20 ft on Tue between the Canary Islands and the
coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W to 01N17W to 00N32W. No ITCZ is present. Scattered
moderate convection is south of 02N and west of 44W. Isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere south of 03N between 05W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb is over the NE Gulf of Mexico near
27N86W. Gentle winds and seas less than 3 ft prevail north of 25N
and east of 91W. Moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas extend
from the Straits of Florida to north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Over the far western Gulf, moderate to locally fresh SE to S
return flow has developed, with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift east tonight,
before sliding into the Atlantic. Fresh southerly return flow will
develop over the western Gulf tonight through Mon night, then
expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed. The cold front will
reach from the Florida Big Bend region to near Tuxpan, Mexico by
Thu morning before stalling.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba to
central Belize. Moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are
behind the front, over portions of the NW Caribbean. In the
south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with 3 to 4
ft seas. Patches of cloudiness with isolated light showers are
noted near and to the south of Jamaica, with another patch
extending from the Mona passage southward to 15N.

For the forecast, the cold front will slide SE tonight then
gradually dissipate as it approaches the Dominican Republic and
Jamaica. High pressure will move E-NE across the western Atlantic
Mon night through Thu and produce fresh to strong trade winds
across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic
Passages. Gales are possible each night offshore of Colombia Tue
night through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to the Turks and Caicos Islands
to the eastern tip of Cuba. A secondary cold front extends from
31N62W to 27N77W. Isolated moderate convection is noted north of
23N between 50W and 60W. Fresh winds are on both sides of the
first cold front, mainly north of 27N between 50W and 70W. Seas
are 8 to 11 ft north of 25N between 56W and 71W. West of 75W,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 6 ft or less.

The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high pressure
centered near 34N37W. A narrow ridge extends from this high
pressure to 25N49W to just N of the Dominican Republic. Between
47W and the Lesser Antilles, winds are moderate with 6 to 7 ft
seas. Fresh trade winds and seas exceeding 7 ft are generally east
of 47W. Fresh NE to ENE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail
between 20W and 35W, from 13N to 30N. North of 20N and east of
20W, fresh to strong NE winds and 10 to 14 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds N of 27N and within
180 nm E of the first cold front will diminish tonight. Behind
the front and N of 28N, fresh NW winds will prevail tonight.
Rough seas in westerly swell will continue following the front
through tonight, mainly north of 26N and east of 70W. The front
will reach from 28N55W to Hispaniola Mon then gradually stall and
weaken from 26N55W to the NE coast of the Dominican Republic Tue.
High pressure will exit Florida Mon and slide E-NE across the W
Atlantic through Wed. The next cold front will move offshore NE
Florida on Thu.

$$
Hagen
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