[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds have been
occurring off the coast of Morocco this evening in the marine
zone Agadir and in the northeast portion of the marine zone
Tarfaya, mainly from 29N to 31N, between the coast of Africa and
11.5W. Seas in this area are currently 16 to 18 ft. Meteo-France
is forecasting winds to diminish to below gale force after 25/0300
UTC tonight. Seas will then gradually subside to below 12 ft by
early Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is to the south of the Equator. Scattered
moderate showers are from 04N southward between 44W and 51W.
Isolated moderate convection is mainly from 04N southward from
45W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba across
the Yucatan Channel to along the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
ending near 21N93W. A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the
NW Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh W
winds are present in the NE Gulf, N of 29N and E of 88W. In the SE
Gulf and Straits of Florida, moderate to locally fresh N winds and
seas 4 to 5 ft are present. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker, with seas 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the basin later
this evening. Moderate N to NE winds behind the front will
diminish overnight and into Sun as high pressure builds in behind
the front. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the
western Gulf Sun night through Mon night, then expand into eastern
portions of the Gulf Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from west-central Cuba near 22.5N81W to the
western tip of Cuba across the Yucatan Channel to Merida, Mexico.
Cloudiness and isolated showers are possible along the front from
the Isle of Youth eastward. Moderate N winds are occurring across
the Yucatan Channel. Mostly gentle northerly winds are occurring
south of 20N and west of 77W. A trade wind regime is found east of
77W. Trades are gentle to moderate in the NE and north-central
Caribbean, increasing to moderate to locally fresh closer to the
coast of South America. The highest seas in the basin are 6 ft off
the coast of Colombia, with generally 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere
south of 17N and east of 78W. South of 16N and west of 78W, seas
are 2-4 ft. Seas are 1-3 ft elsewhere. Cloudiness with possible
isolated showers are found extending from near the Windward
Passage to eastern Jamaica to near 14.5N78W. Another smaller patch
of cloudiness with possible embedded isolated showers is located
to the south of the Mona Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will
continue across the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia
through early next week, strongest at nights. The cold front over
the NW Caribbean will reach from the Windward Passage to E of the
Gulf of Honduras Sun morning, then sink SE to be from Hispaniola
to Jamaica by Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the
western Atlantic Mon through Wed night and produce fresh to strong
trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the
Atlantic Passages. By Wed night, gales could develop offshore
Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the east
Atlantic Gale Warning offshore Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to the N coast of Cuba near
23N80W. Scattered moderate showers are within 90 nm of the front N
of 28N and east of 72W, with isolated/lighter showers farther SW
along the front. Strong SW winds and 10 to 15 ft seas are
occurring along and within 180 nm E of the front, mainly N of 26N.
Fresh SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are E of the front from 24.5N to
26N. To the west of the front, an area of strong to near-gale
force WNW winds and 8 to 11 ft seas exists north of 28N and east
of 80W. Elsewhere west of the front, fresh WNW to NW winds
prevail. Seas are exceeding 8 ft north of 25.5N between 62W and
79W, with peak seas of 15 ft near 31N67W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1032 mb high pressure
centered S of the Azores near 34N27W. A surface ridge extends SW
from the high pressure to 26N48W to the N coast of Hispaniola.
Winds are moderate or weaker with seas 6 to 7 ft within several
hundred miles of the surface ridge. Fresh NE to ENE trades are
generally to the east and inside a partial contour extending from
31N22W to 24N42W to 08N55W to 04N47W to 16N17W. However, NNE to
NE winds are strong N of 20N and east of 20W. West of 36W across
this fresh wind area, seas are 7 to 9 ft. Seas are generally 9 to
12 ft between 36W and the Canary Islands. Between the Canary
Islands and the coast of Morocco, strong to gale force N to NNE
winds and 12-18 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong SW winds will prevail along
and within 150 nm E of the western Atlantic cold front N of 26N
tonight. Behind the front and N of 27N, strong to near-gale force
NW winds will prevail tonight. Rough to very rough seas in
westerly swell will follow the front, with of 8 ft or greater
reaching as far S as 24N Sun. The front will reach from 31N61W to
the Windward Passage Sun afternoon then gradually stall and weaken
from 26N55W to just N of the Dominican Republic Tue.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net