[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240452
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0452 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast tonight. Recent scatterometer data
depicted SW gale force winds ahead of the front across the
northern waters, mainly north of 29N and west of 66W. Gale force
winds will prevail in the area tonight through Sat afternoon.
Rough to very rough seas in W swell will follow the front, with
seas to 8 ft reaching as far south as 24N on Sun. Strong W winds
will spread across these same waters behind the front Sat
through Sun morning before wind and seas begin to diminish
through Mon. The front will reach from 31N59W to central
Hispaniola by Sun afternoon and gradually stall and weaken from
26N55W to eastern Hispaniola Tue.

Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from 11N15W to 03N24W to
00N36W. The ITCZ continues from 00N36W to 00N44W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04S to 03N between 24W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico tonight,
extending from the Florida Big Bend region to near Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered showers are depicted north of 24N and west of
91W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are ongoing W of the front
covering the western Gulf waters while gentle to moderate SW to
W winds are ahead of the front over the SE basin. Seas 6-8 ft
are over the NE basin while 3-4 ft seas are ahead of the front.
Over the western half of the basin seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is followed by
moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas. The front
will reach the SE waters on Sat morning, and move southeast of
the basin by Sat evening. Surface high pressure will build in
the wake of the front late Sat through early next week. Moderate
to fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western
Gulf Sun night through Mon night, then expand into eastern
portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast
to enter the NW Gulf early Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

The pressure gradient between 1017 mb surface high SE of Bermuda
and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting moderate to
fresh trades over the central and portions of the eastern
Caribbean with locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia.
Seas over these regions of the basin are in the 4-7 ft range. A
weak pressure gradient is over the western part of the basin due
to a cold front moving across the E Gulf of Mexico and northern
Florida. This is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and
1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will return to the
Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia tonight and persist
through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front will reach
the NW Caribbean late Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba
to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W Sun morning,
then sink SE and dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of
Honduras Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the western
Atlantic Sun night through Tue night and produce fresh to strong
trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the
Atlantic Passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information about the Gale Warning in effect over the western
Atlantic.

A 1017 mb high is centered near 28N61W while a cold front is
coming off the NE coast of Florida tonight. Ahead of the cold
front a pre-frontal trough is producing a line of strong
convection N of 29.5N between 73.5W and 80W. Gale force SW winds
are occurring offshore NE Florida N of 29N ahead of the cold
front along with 8-16 ft seas extending to 27N and 69.5W.
Between 65W and 69.5W winds are moderate to fresh S to SW and
seas are 7-8 ft N of 25N. E of the center of high pressure, a
stationary front extends from 31N53W to 23N56W with a trough
extending from the tail of the front to the Leeward Islands
eastern offshore waters. Ahead of the front winds are fresh with
seas 8-10 ft. The remainder of the central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower
pressures near the Canary Islands continue to support fresh to
strong NNE winds over the far subtropical eastern Atlantic,
extending to the Cape Verde Islands. Rough to very rough seas of
8-15 ft are over that region, highest NE of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force SW winds are occurring
offshore of NE Florida and N of 29N, ahead of a cold front
forecast to move off the Florida coast before midnight tonight.
SW gales will persist ahead of the front across the north
waters, N of 29N and W of 66W, through Sat afternoon, as the
front shifts E-SE. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell
will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as
24N on Sun. The front will reach from 31N59W to central
Hispaniola by Sun afternoon and gradually stall and weaken from
26N55W to eastern Hispaniola Tue. Farther E, a weak stationary
front extends from 31N52W to 16N60W, and will drift westward
across the Leeward Islands during the upcoming weekend.

$$
KRV
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