[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale-force southerly winds
are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly
N of 29N between 68W and 80W, Fri afternoon through Sat
late morning. Rough to very rough seas will follow the front.

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to 01S44W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 05W and 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate southerly return flow is found across the basin. Seas
are in the 6-9 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak ridge extends from the NW Bahamas
westward across the entire Gulf of Mexico, and will shift
eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the
Texas coast tonight. Fresh southerly winds are ahead of the
front over the western and north central Gulf. The front will
reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville,
Texas by Fri morning, and will be over the south waters on Sat
morning, extending across the Straits of Florida to near
Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be
expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high
pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

A weakening Atlantic cold front extends through 20N59W
southwestward across the southern Leeward Islands to 14N66W. No
significant convection is depicted with this feature. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds prevail between 65W and 81W. Light to
gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
in the SW and central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Bahamas
near 27N77W and extends a ridge westward across the Gulf of
Mexico. A weakening Atlantic cold front extends through 20N59W
southwestward across the southern Leeward Islands to 14N66W. The
front will move slowly eastward and into the Tropical Atlantic
waters Fri then dissipate by Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds
will return to the south-central Caribbean by Fri night and
persist through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front
will reach the NW Caribbean by Sat afternoon, and extend from
eastern Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W
on Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Bahamas near 27N77W. A
1010 mb low is centered near 30N62W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 110 nm E semicircle
of the low. A cold front extends from 31N56W to the southern
Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 130 nm of the front. Recent
scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong southerly winds east
of the front. Rough seas to 10 ft are noted on either side of
the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, are
noted north of 22N between 64W and 76W. Light to gentle winds
are W of 76W. Farther east, high pressure prevails across the
waters N of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 15N to 28N
between the west coast of Africa and 40W, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 7-10 ft generally prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front continues to move slowly
eastward across the Atlantic, extending from 31N56W to the
southern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong S winds are noted E of
the front, while large N to NE swell is W of 65W. The cold front
will reach from 31N55W to 20N58W to 14N60W by Fri morning, then
weaken to a frontal trough on Sat, and drift westward toward the
Leeward Islands on Sun. Winds and seas associated with this
system will improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front
will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale force SW winds
are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly
N of 29N and W of 65W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough seas
in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft
reaching as far S as 25N on Sun.

$$
KRV
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