[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front continues to
push eastward across the Atlantic, extending from a 1007 mb low
near 33N 59W to the Anegada Passage. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas are noted on either side of the front with an area of
gale-force southerly winds ahead of the front N of 29N between
55W and 60W. A line of showers and thunderstorms are occurring
near the boundary. The cold front will move slowly move eastward
and dissipate Fri. Winds and seas associated with this system
will improve by Fri night into Sat.

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale-force southerly winds
are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N
of 29N between 65W and 80W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough
seas will follow the front.

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to
03N23W. The ITCZ begins near 03N23W and extends to 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 01S between 43W
and 46W .

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf of Mexico supported
by surface high pressure centered over Florida and dry air in the
middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Winds are light and
seas are low across the eastern half of the Gulf, closer to the
surface high. However, moderate to fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are occurring over the western Gulf associated with
the pressure gradient between the high and low pressure over
Mexico and the southern U.S.

For the forecast, the ridge is expected shift eastward in
response to a cold front approaching the western Gulf. The cold
front will emerge off the Texas coast tonight and continue
sweeping across the basin through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas.
Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front Sat
evening through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough, associated with the tail end of a frontal
boundary across the central Atlantic, is draped across the eastern
Caribbean. However, no significant shower activity is occurring
near the trough. Winds are light and seas are low east of about
72W, except in the Mona Passage where northerly swell is
elevating seas to moderate. Northerly winds are generally
moderate west of 72W and seas are highest across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in some northerly swell.

For the forecast, the front/trough near the Leeward Islands will
move eastward across the island chain and the Atlantic regional
waters today before dissipating tonight. Fresh to strong winds
will return to the south-central Caribbean by Fri night and
persist through the weekend, but mainly at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warnings
in the western and Central Atlantic waters.

A low pressure system located near 29N 66W is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of
the low. Winds are fresh in the vicinity of the low and seas are
rough north of 25N between 66W and 73W due to the winds and swell
from a stronger low to its north.

The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is
dominated by surface high pressure and there are no areas of
significant showers and thunderstorms. The trade winds are
moderate to fresh across much of the eastern and central Atlantic
and seas are generally moderate.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to push
eastward across the Atlantic while weakening, and dissipate Fri.
Winds and seas associated with this system will improve by Fri
night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida
coast on Fri. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of
the front, see Special Features above.

$$
Cangialosi
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