[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A storm force low just N of
the area near 34N67W will move NE, dragging a cold front across
the waters. Southerly flow will increase to gale force east of
the front briefly on Thu morning. Seas will build to 11 ft during
the period of gale force winds. Winds will then diminish
gradually through Fri night.

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast on Fri. Southerly gale force winds will develop
over the NE Florida offshores Fri and Fri night. Seas will build
to near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds.

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends
to 07N19W. The ITCZ begins near 07N19W and extends to 04N30W to
02S43W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1024 mb high centered offshore the Florida Big Bend.  Moderate
to locally fresh return flow, and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over
the western waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 3 ft seas
are in the far SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 ft
or less are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high will shift eastward by midweek in
response to a cold front approaching the western Gulf. Ahead of
this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected
in the western Gulf tonight into Thu morning. Seas will peak near
9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish Thu afternoon as the cold
front moves across the Gulf Thu night through Sat. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with
moderate seas. Surface high pressure will built again in the wake
of the front Sat evening through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dying frontal boundary extends from the Mona Passage to
Panama. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Windward
Passage and SW Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 17N
between 77W and 83W. A recent scatterometer pass recorded strong
winds offshore Nicaragua and south of 14N. Moderate to fresh
winds are elsewhere W of the front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the
eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong N winds and moderate
to rough seas will prevail behind the boundary, mostly off of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through early Thu morning. Winds will
also pulse to strong in the Windward Passage through Thu morning.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow the front and affect
the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic adjacent waters
through Fri morning as the front moves across Puerto Rico before
moving E of the Leeward Islands Thu evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warnings
in the western and Central Atlantic waters.

A pronounced mid to upper level digging trough supports a nearly
north-of-south-oriented stationary front that stretches from
31N64W to 26N65W, where it meets a newly formed 1012 mb low
pressure center. A cold front continues south from the low to
22N65W and to the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 90 nm of the cold front and within
240 nm of the stationary front. A recent scatterometer pass
revealed fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the frontal
system, mainly north of 22N and west of 55W where seas are 5 to
7 ft. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are between the boundary
and 70W where seas are 5 to 7 ft.

To the west of this system, a 1011 mb low pressure near 27N70W
extends a forming cold front to the SW, reaching the southern
Bahamas. Fresh northerly winds are noted between this system and
the U.S. SE coast, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. An area of 12 ft
seas is north of 29N between 68W and 73W. 12 ft seas should lift
north of the area by morning.

Farther east, high pressure prevails. Winds are fresh to strong
from 13N to 24N between 19W and 40W. Moderate to fresh prevail
elsewhere east of the fronts. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are from 12N to
24N E of 40W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will extend from
31N54W to the Anegada Passage Thu evening and will dissipate
Fri. Marine conditions will improve by Fri night into Sat. A new
and strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri,
potentially bringing southerly gale force winds to the NE
Florida offshores Fri and Fri night.

$$
Mora
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