[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 30N71W. A stationary front
extends from the low pressure center, just to the south of
Bermuda. A cold front continues from the 1012 mb low pressure
center, through the SE Bahamas and the Windward Passage, into the
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
center, to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. The
current forecast for tonight consists of gale-force NW to N winds,
and rough to very rough seas, from 30.5N northward between 69.5W
and 71W. Expect elsewhere from 29N northward between 64W and 74W:
strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas. Expect in the
remainder of the area from 28N northward between 64W and 76W:
moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas in mixed swell. The gale-
force winds will start to slow down during the early morning hours
and through Wednesday morning. Expect strong to near gale-force
winds, and rough seas, everywhere to the west of the front during
the next 48 hours or so. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are within 250 nm to the northwest of the line 31N60W
26N67W 20N73W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the
period that ended at 20/1200 UTC, are:
0.57 in Bermuda; 0.03 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.01 in
Freeport in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through
the southern coastal plains of Sierra Leone, to 03N10W 03N20W
01N31W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is to the south of the line: from the coast of Africa along
10N, 07N30W 05N40W 05N50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1026 mb high pressure center is in SE Alabama. Slight to
moderate seas are in the SE corner, and in the far SW corner.
Slight seas are elsewhere. Fresh to strong northerly winds have
been moving through the Yucatan Channel. Broad moderate or slower
anticyclonic winds cover the entire area.

High pressure system over the SE United States extends a ridge
across the Gulf of Mexico and will move eastward by midweek in
response to a cold front approaching the western Gulf. Ahead of
this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected
in the western Gulf on Wed night. These winds will diminish Thu as
the cold front moves across the Gulf Thu night through Sat.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front
with moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Windward Passage, to 15N80W in
the Caribbean Sea, and to the coast of Panama along 81W. Fresh
to strong northerly winds are in the coastal waters of eastern
Honduras and all of Nicaragua. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere
to the west of the cold front. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are
within 180 nm to the northwest of the front.

Strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W and 77W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 215 nm of
the coast of Colombia. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are
from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover much of the Caribbean
Sea. An exception is for rough seas in the coastal waters of
Colombia, in the areas of the strong winds. Another exception is
for slight seas in the coastal waters of NW Honduras.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 20/1200 UTC, are: 0.31 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, according to
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A cold front extends from E Cuba to the Panamanian coast and will
continue pushing east through Wed before weakening by Thu in the
eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough
seas off Nicaragua and Costa Rica will follow the front through
Thu morning. This system has loosened the pressure gradient across
the Caribbean waters. This has decreased the areal coverage of
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean and is
expected to diminish by Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
forecast for the gale-force winds for tonight.

An upper level NE-to-SW oriented trough extends from the Canary
Islands to 12N53W. is along 31N24W 25N28W 18N34W 13N46W 09N60W.
Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 10N northward
from 60W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N40W 28N53W 26N62W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 18N northward from 25W eastward,
and from 16N to 22N between 40W and 50W. between 21W and 28W.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is between 60W and 70W.
Mostly fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 60W eastward. One
exception is for moderate NE winds from 14N southward between 20W
and 30W. Rough seas are between 18W and 45W. Moderate to rough
seas are from 10N southward between 45W and 60W. Moderate seas are
in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1012 mb low pressure located between the Bahamas and Bermuda
will lift north of area tonight. Fresh to strong winds will
persist today north and west of the low. As the low moves
northward, it will deepen and bring brief gale force winds N of
29N between 70W and 74W tonight. Meanwhile, rough to very rough
seas will propagate into the waters N of 20N tonight and spread
south and east through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft and
higher will reach 29N tonight into Wed morning. The cold front
associated with the low pressure will extend from 31N65W to
Hispaniola on Wed morning and from 31N59W to the Anegada Passage
Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
along this front through the end of the week.

$$
mt/sd
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