[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends
southwestward from a 1009 mb low near 26N84W to across
the northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula and to inland
Mexico just south of Veracruz. Overnight ASCAT satellite data
revealed a wide swath of northwest to north gale winds over the
western Gulf zones south of 26N and west of 94W. Wave heights
with these winds are in the range of 13-18 ft. North gale
winds will soon begin over the central Gulf waters north of the
Yucatan Peninsula with wave heights of 10-15 ft. The gales will
diminish this afternoon as the low tracks east-northeastward
across the rest of the southeastern Gulf pulling the front
southeastward toward the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. Marine
conditions will begin to improve this evening and tonight as the
front and low pressure pull to the east of basin. Lingering
northwest to north producing seas of 8-10 ft will be confined to
the waters south and southeast of a line from 26N87W to 25N93W to
21N97W tonight. This swell will decay Monday.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
southern Senegal and extends southwestward to near 10N22W. To its
southwest, the ITCZ extends from 04N39W to south of the Equator
near 34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
ITCZ between 39W-23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A stationary front is analyzed from South Florida to a 1009 mb
low near 26N85W. A cold front extends from the low to 21N90W and
to the central Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, high pressure is
building southward over the western Gulf areas. Satellite imagery
shows abundant overcast mid to high level cloudiness covering
most of the basin. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers
are noted between 84W-93W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and near the front and low from 22N
to 26N and between 82W-87W. This activity is moving eastward.
Elsewhere away from the gale wind areas, an overnight ASCAT
satellite data indicates strong to near gale north to northeast
winds from 26N to 28N and west of about 92W. Wave heights with
these winds are in the range of 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong
north to northeast winds are over the remainder of the basin,
except to the southeast of the frontal boundary where winds are
lighter, of gentle to moderate speeds. Wave heights elsewhere
north of the frontal boundary are in the range of 7-10 ft due to
north to northeast swell, and 3-6 ft southeast of the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, the front and low pressure will exit the basin
tonight allowing for marine conditions to improve. Rough seas will
continue over portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico into early
Mon as high pressure settles over the region. Fresh southerly
return flow is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as
the high shifts eastward. These winds diminish Thu as a frontal
boundary approaches the NW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure
ridging and relatively lower pressure in Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong northeast to east winds and wave heights of
8 to 9 ft seas over the south-central section of the basin.
Overnight ASCAT satellite data indicates moderate to fresh east-
southeast winds over the north-central section of the sea north of
15N and between 68W-80W. Wave heights with these winds are in the
range of 6-8 ft. The ASCAT satellite data also reveals gentle to
moderate southeast to south winds over the northwestern part of
the sea. Wave heights with these winds are 4-6 ft in southeast to
south swell. Moderate to fresh east- southeast winds and seas of
4-6 ft are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas that are over the central basin will change little
into early next week.  A cold front will move across the
northwestern basin Sun through Mon, and across the central basin
through the middle of next week while weakening. Fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds will follow the front. Rough seas are
expected in and near the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then gradually
subside afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from just to the northwest
of Bermuda to 31N72W, then becomes stationary to low pressure of
1010 mb near 30N74W. A cold front extends from the low to the
NW Bahamas and to South Florida. Overcast multilayer clouds with
embedded areas of light to moderate rain and possible showers
are seen to the northwest of the frontal boundary and low
pressure. Isolated showers are possible south of the frontal
boundary to 25N and west of 76W. Moderate to fresh south to
southwest winds and seas of 5-7 ft are east of the frontal
boundary to near 61W and north of 27N. Gentle to moderate NW winds
and 4-6 ft seas are behind the front. To the east of the frontal
boundary and low pressure, a central Atlantic trough is analyzed
from near 30N45W to 20N47W. Isolated showers are possible from 21N
to 31N between 41W-48W.

Mostly fresh northeast to east winds along with wave heights of
8-12 ft due to northwest to north swell are present east of 62W,
with the highest of the seas in the NE part of the area. This area
wave heights will slowly subside through Monday night. Light to
gentle winds along with wave heights of about 5-7 ft are over
the remainder of the Atlantic basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the 101 mb low near 30N74W will
lift north of 31N this morning. Low pressure over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico will track east-northeastward along the stationary
front to over South Florida today, reaching the western Atlantic
waters near the NW Bahamas tonight. It is expected to deepen a
little. Fresh to strong winds will continue near and to the
northwest of the frontal boundary along with rough seas, with the
potential for more widespread strong and near gale force winds
near the track of the low pressure. A broad area of fresh to
strong northwest winds will over the waters northeast of the
Bahamas Wed and Wed night. These winds will shift to the northeast
part of the area Thu and Thu night as fresh southwest to west
develop over the waters northeast of northern Florida in advance
of the next frontal system.

$$
Aguirre
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