[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A strong cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low near
26N85W to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. NW to N near-gale to
gale-force winds behind this front are occurring at the west-
central Gulf near Tampico, Mexico. Seas under these winds are
peaking at 13 to 15 ft. As the front moves farther southeastward,
these gale-force winds and high seas will shift to the western Bay
of Campeche near Veracruz, Mexico after midnight tonight. By Sun
morning, these winds and seas will shift northeastward to north of
the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N90W. As the front pushes farther
southeastward and departs the region, marine conditions in the Bay
of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula will gradually
improve Sun afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

Atlantic Significant Swell:
Residual long-period NW swell will remain high enough to maintain
12 to 14 ft seas north of 21N between 35W and 41W tonight. By
early Sun morning, the core of this swell is going to progress
east of 35W while decaying further. As a result, seas west of 35W
and south of 31N are anticipated to drop below 12 ft. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir Marine Zone
until 18/0600 UTC. For more information, please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of southern
Senegal, then curves southwestward to near 11N20W. Farther south,
an ITCZ extends southwestward from 03N20W to beyond 00N33W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough but near
the ITCZ from 02N to 05N between 10W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A stationary front reaches westward from St. Petersburg, Florida
to a 1009 mb low near 26N85W, then continues as a cold front to
just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near and up to 180 nm northwest of this boundary. Patchy
showers and thick cirrus cover the rest of the Gulf behind this
boundary. Convergent southerly winds ahead of this boundary are
causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over and
north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Outside the Gale Warning area,
strong NW to N winds and seas of 10 to 13 ft are present at the
west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas
dominate the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas at
2 to 5 ft exist at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate
W to SSW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the low pressure will shift southeastward
toward the southeastern Gulf on Sun. The frontal boundary and
embedded low pressure will exit the basin Sun night, allowing
marine conditions to improve. Rough seas will continue over
portions of the southern Gulf into early Mon as a high pressure
settles over the region. Fresh southerly winds is expected for
the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high shifts eastward.
These winds diminish Thu as another frontal boundary approaches
the northwestern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tight gradient between a broad Atlantic Ridge near 25N and the
Colombian Low is sustaining fresh to strong ENE to E winds with 8
to 9 ft seas across the south-central basin. Fresh E to ESE winds
and seas at 6 to 7 ft are seen over the north-central basin.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist at the
southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds with moderate to
rough seas will persist across the central basin into early next
week. A cold front will move across the northwestern basin Sun
through Mon, and across the central basin through the middle of
next week while weakening. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds
will follow the front. Rough seas are expected in and near the
Yucatan Channel Sun night, then gradually subside afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about
Significant Swell near 40W and a Gale Warning in the Meteo-
France Marine Zone.

A cold front runs southwestward from north of Bermuda across
31N73W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are
seen near and up to 150 nm northwest of this feature. A surface
trough is triggering similar conditions at the central Atlantic
north of 25N between 40W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident
ahead of the cold front north of 28N between 55W and 68W. Gentle
to moderate NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found behind the
front. Farther south of these areas, gentle to moderate SE to S
winds with seas at 6 to 10 ft in moderate to large northerly swell
exist from 20N to 28N/cold front between 55W and the Bahamas.
Other than the significant swell, gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 35W and 55W.
Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong NNE to
ENE winds and seas at 9 to 12 ft are present north of 12N between
the Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to
E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in large northerly swell are found.
Light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become stationary
by early Sun from near 31N67W across a weak low near the northwest
Bahamas to southern Florida. The low will track northeastward and
move north of 31N late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
continue near and northwest of the frontal boundary. There is the
potential for more widespread strong to near-gale force winds near
the track of the low pressure. A broad area of fresh NW winds
will develop south of the departing low, northeast of the Bahamas
Wed and Wed night. From Wed night through Thu evening, fresh to
strong southerly winds will also develop north of 24N between 50W
and 60W. Toward the weekend, increasing SW winds and building seas
are anticipated off northeast Florida ahead of the next cold front.

$$

Chan
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