[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172249
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
29N83W to 22N98W. NW to N gale force winds are currently
impacting the western Gulf waters offshore Tampico, Mexico. Seas
currently 8-9 ft will quickly build to 11-14 ft by Sun morning.
Gales and very rough seas will spread southward to the offshore
waters of Veracruz, Mexico tonight. Winds are forecast to diminish
below gale force by Sun afternoon, with seas forecast to subside
beginning Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the Agadir Offshore Zone, effective now through 18/0600 UTC.
NE winds to Force 8 with severe gusts and rough to very rough
seas are expected. For more information, please see the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell
generated by a low pressure system N of the forecast waters will
continue to impact the central Atlantic through tonight. Very
rough seas of 12-15 ft with a period of 12-15 seconds are
affecting the waters north of 20N east of 47W. These seas are
forecast to subside from west to east below 12 ft tonight, but
elevated seas of 8-10 ft will prevail across the waters east of
60W through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W, and continues
southwestward to near 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to
01S45W. Scattered showers are noted along the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NW winds have
been reported by surface observations in the wake of the front. As
a result of these winds, seas are currently 4-7 ft and building.
Gentle to moderate S winds are ahead of the front with 2-4 ft
seas. A surface trough is analized over the Bay of Campeche from
24N92W to 21N94W.

For the forecast, the gales will expand southward tonight and
impact areas offshore Veracruz, Mexico into Sun. Weak low pressure
is developing along this front over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico. This low will move E and SE and reach the SE Gulf of
Mexico Sun, when the associated cold front will extend from the
Florida Everglades to the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional gales may
develop near the low pressure late tonight and early Tue to the N
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Rough to very rough seas will also
accompany these strong to gale force winds. Later Sun, the front
and low pressure will move E and SE of the basin, and conditions
will begin to improve. However, rough seas will continue over
portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico into Mon, when high
pressure will settle into the region. Fresh southerly return flow
is expected for the western Gulf Wed and Wed night as the high
shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the
Colombian low continue to support fresh to strong trades across
the south-central Caribbean. Latest satellite altimeter data from
depicts seas are 8-10 ft from 10N to 16N between 66W and 80W.
Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas are elsewhere in the
southwest, central, and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds
and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure centered
over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America
is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas over the central Caribbean, which will prevail into early
next week. A cold front will move across the northwestern
Caribbean Sun into Mon and across the central Caribbean through
the middle of next week, while weakening. Fresh to locally strong
northwest to north winds will follow the front. Rough seas are
expected in and near the Yucatan Channel Sun night, with gradually
subsiding seas thereafter.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant Swell event and Agadir Gale Warning.

1025 mb high pressure is near 31N45W. A dissipating stationary
front is from 31N33W to 21N60W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
across the tropical Atlantic, increasing to fresh speeds S of
15N. Seas 8-12 ft in NW swell are north of a line from 31N10W to
08N40W to 18N61W to 31N65W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas E of 65W will shift E
and SE of the forecast waters tonight. A cold front will emerge
off the Florida coast this evening, then stall tonight. Low
pressure is forecast to form near South Florida Sun into Sun night
along the front, then move NE and out of the area by Tue. Along
and NW of the frontal boundary, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will prevail, with the potential for more widespread strong
and near gale force winds near the track of the low pressure.

$$
ERA
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