[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient between high pressure of
1022 mb located over the western Atlantic and relatively lower
pressure in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean Sea is
supporting gale-force winds offshore Colombia. These winds are
forecast to peak at 40 kt during early morning hours before
diminishing to below gale-force. Wave heights with these winds
are in the range of 10-13 ft. These winds will again develop
offshore Colombia tonight.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf Sat morning, then moves southeastward
across the central and eastern Gulf through early next week. Fresh
to strong NW to N winds are expected to follow this front,
peaking at near-gale to gale force across the west-central and
central Gulf Sat night into early Sun morning. Wave heights with
the strongest winds are forecast to reach 12-15 ft.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period northwest swell
generated by a storm-force low pressure system over the northern
Atlantic will continue to impact the central Atlantic through Sat.
Expect very rough to high seas of 12-21 ft currently north of 25N
between 35W-65W and with a period of 12-14 seconds to spread
farther southward to near 21N on Sat. As this swell gradually
decays Fri through Sat, it should allow seas to subside to between
12 and 16 ft and shift east of 50W by Sat afternoon. Seas west of
35W should subside below 12 ft Sat night or early Sun morning.

Marine interests in the above areas need to monitor these
situations closely and plan accordingly. Please read the latest
High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Gambia-Guinea
Bissau border, then extends southwestward to near 02N23W, where
over night scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues westward to 01N31W and to 01N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
23W-29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for an upcoming Gale
Warning.

Upper-level southwesterly flow as a result of a persistent
southern jet stream branch is advecting plenty of thick cirrus
cloudiness across the west-central and northern Gulf. Otherwise,
high pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high centered in the NE Gulf
is,for the most part, present over the Gulf. A couple of weak
troughs are over the central Gulf. One extends from 28N86W to
24N86W, and the other one from just offshore southeastern
Louisiana to 25N93W. Isolated showers are possible mainly near
the second trough, and over some areas of the western Gulf.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are present at the
northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and
wave heights of 4-6 ft are over the central and eastern Bay of
Campeche. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds and lower seas
of 2 to 4 ft are over the rest of the basin. Patches of rain,
with embedded scattered showers are over the western Gulf, and
along some of the Texas coastal plains.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward
today through early Sat. Weak low pressure will develop over the
NW Gulf on Sat and track eastward across the Gulf during the
weekend. Its associated cold front is expected to reach from Tampa
Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon and from the
Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. The
front is expected to push east of the basin by Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the
front through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible in the
wake of the front during the upcoming weekend, especially in the
western Gulf. Conditions will begin to improve by Mon as high
pressure settles across the area. Meanwhile, fresh north to
northeast winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will
diminish Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing gale
conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front extends west-southwestward from
eastern Cuba to the northwestern Caribbean near 19N84W.
Isolated showers are near the frontal boundary. Overnight
ASCAT satellite data passes show gentle to moderate trade winds
in the western part of the sea, where wave heights seas are 3-5
ft. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are in the lee of central
Cuba per overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Outside the Gale
Warning area, fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with
wave heights of 6-9 ft are in the central part of the sea. Gentle
to moderate trade winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft are elsewhere
over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
over the central Caribbean. Gale force winds off the Colombia
coast will diminish this morning, but pulse back up to gale force
Fri night. Strong trade winds will persist through early next week
across this area. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends from
eastern Cuba to northeast Honduras. The front will dissipate
through late tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant Swell event.

A cold front extends southwestward from the Azores through
31N41W to 23N57W, then continues westward as a weakening
stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern
Cuba. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with possible
scattered showers are evident near and up to 120 nm northwest
and north of the frontal boundary. Other than the wave heights
created by the large northwest swell, fresh to strong northwest
to north winds are behind the cold front to near 62W. Fresh to
strong south to southwest winds and wave heights of 14-18 ft in
northwest swell are up to 240 nm southeast of the cold front. A
1022 mb high center is analyzed in the western part of the
Atlantic near 29.5N71W. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
pattern associated to this high center is present west of 58W.
Seas over this area are 8-12 ft in north swell between 61W-70W,
10-13 ft between 61W-58W, 6-8 ft between 70W-75W and 4-6 ft west
of 75W.

In the eastern part of the Atlantic, high pressure ridging extends
from a 1027 mb high center that is just north of the Canary
Islands at 33N26W southwestward to near 19N41W. Light to gentle
winds along with wave heights of 4-6 ft in moderate northerly
swell are present up to 200 nm along either side of the ridge
axis. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft are present
north of 10N between the African coast and 30W. Overnight ASCAT
satellite data passes reveal gentle to moderate northeast to east
winds from about 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle southerly winds along with seas of 5-7 ft due to
mixed moderate swell are over the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean
discussion domain.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
become stationary from near 23N55W to 22N61W today and weaken
through tonight. Very rough to high seas N of 23N and E of 75W
will move east and southeast of the forecast waters on Sat.
Moderate to rough seas will continue through the weekend. Another
cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Sat, bringing
fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 70W through
early next week. Low pressure may form along the front near the
Bahamas and track northeastward late Tue.

$$
Aguirre
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