[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Expect near gale-force to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough
seas, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 75W, along the coast of
Colombia, tonight. These conditions will last until Thursday
morning. The conditions of near gale-force to gale-force NE winds,
and rough seas, will repeat on Thursday night, and they will last
until Friday morning. Expect NE to E strong to near gale-force
winds, and rough seas, during the rest of the next 48 hours or so.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

The earlier gale-force winds have diminished. These conditions
were from 30N northward, and to the east of the current
31N56W-28N60W-26N70W-Cuba 22N78W cold front. An extensive area of
large west to northwest swell, that is following behind the cold
front, will move to the east-southeastward, and be in an area that
is bounded by 31N69W 31N40W 26N52W 28N62W 31N69W, by early
Thursday. The wave heights with this swell area are forecast to
range from 12 feet to 18 feet, with a period from 12 seconds to 15
seconds. The swell area is forecast by the Wave models to migrate
more to the southeast, while expanding in coverage by late Friday.
The forecast for Friday is for the swell to reach 24N between 30W
and 60W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Sierra Leone, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to
02N23W 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 34W, to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is to the south of 08N along the coast of Sierra
Leone, 07N30W 04N47W 03N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 1026 mb
high pressure center is in NE Alabama. Moderate seas cover the
area to the south of the line from the central part of the Florida
west coast, to the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, curving
toward the coastal water off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas
are in the rest of the area. Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds
span the entire area.

High pressure extends across the basin and will begin to shift
eastward through Fri. A low pressure system will develop over the
NW Gulf late Fri, and track eastward toward the eastern Gulf by
late Sat. The attendant cold front is expected to reach from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, and from
near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Sat night. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas are expected behind the front through the
weekend. Winds to minimal gale force are possible in the wake of
the front during the upcoming weekend, particularly along the
Mexico coast. Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the west coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula at night Wed and Thu in the late afternoons
and evenings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for the forecast about
the gale-force winds in the coastal waters of Colombia, during the
next 48 hours or so.

Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the area that is from
Jamaica southward between the Anegada Passage and 81W. Slight seas
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Broad fresh to strong
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica southward
from 83W eastward. A cold front passes through 22N78W in Cuba, to
21N80W. The front is stationary from 21N80W, curving 18N84W, and
to east central Honduras. Fresh to strong north to northeast
winds are to the west of the front. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong, are to the west of the line that runs from SE Cuba to the
easternmost sections of Honduras.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are spread throughout the rest of
the area.

High pressure building north of the area is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central
Caribbean. Winds will reach gale force off the Colombia coast
tonight and Thu night with strong winds continuing into the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from central Cuba to
21N80W, where it becomes a stationary front to northeast Honduras.
The front will stall from east central central Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras by early this evening, then dissipate through late
Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is passing through 31N56W 28N60W 26N70W, reaching
Cuba near 22N78W, to 21N80W. The front is stationary from 21N80W,
curving 18N84W, and to east central Honduras. Strong to near
gale-force SW winds are from 26N northward between 46W and the
cold front. Fresh SW winds are about 135 nm to the south of the
area of the strong winds. Fresh SW winds are within 120 nm on the
southern side of the front between 60W and 66W. Fresh NW winds
are on the northern side of the front from 70W eastward.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 23N northward from
40W westward.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 23N46W. A surface trough is
along 31N25W 27N28W 25N34W. Fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 29N
northward between 24W and 29W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are
from 20N northward from 40W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals
in inches, for the period that ended at 14/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in
Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The sea heights are 12 feet or higher to the north of the line
that is from 31N along the cold front, 29N68W, to 29N73W, beyond
31N73W. Moderate to rough seas are elsewhere to the north of the
line that is from 31N24N to 23N36W 28N51W 28N60W 28N73W beyond
31N73W. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from 13N southward
between 28W and 60W. Moderate seas cover the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Strong to near gale-force SW winds are from 26N
northward between 46W and the cold front. Fresh SE winds are from
30N northward from 14W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 09N to
18N from 35W eastward; and from 17N southward between 35W and 60W.
Moderate or slower winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N56W to central Cuba. The front will
reach from near 31N47W to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands by
Thu morning, then reach the far southern waters by early Fri
morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are
expected on either side of the front through Thu night. Winds will
diminish from W to E through Fri as high pressure builds along
30N in the wake of the front. The rough to very rough seas will
persist through the weekend.

$$
mt/ar
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