[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will build over the
western Atlantic in the wake of a cold front. The combination
of this high pressure and relatively lower pressure over the
western Caribbean Sea and in South America will result in a
tightening of the pressure gradient across the Caribbean. Winds
will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Wed night and
Thu night. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale
force winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: The earlier gale-force winds that
were north of 30N and east of a cold front that extends from just
east of Bermuda to central Cuba at 06Z have diminished, however,
an extensive area of large west to northwest swell following in
behind the front will shift east-southeastward through the waters
within an area bounded by 31N69W to 31N40W to 26N52W to 28N62W and
to 31N69W by early Thu. Wave heights with this swell area are
forecast to reach the range of 12-18 ft with a period of 12-15
seconds. The swell area is forecast by the Wave models to migrate
more to the southeast while expanding in coverage by late Fri., at
which time it is forecast to reach as far south as 24N and
between 30W-60W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. Overnight scatterometer
data indicates that the ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 02N29W to
00N36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 19W-22W, and within
60 nm of the remainder of the ITCZ. Similar convection is within
30 nm of a line from 03N36W to 03N41W, and within 01N36W to
01N41W and to 01S45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the
northwest Gulf just south of the Sabine Pass. High pressure covers
the basin. The gradient is maintaining a generally gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow throughout, except for light east-
southeast winds in the NW Gulf. Wave heights range from 5-7 ft in
the southeastern Gulf, to 4-6 ft elsewhere southeast of a line
from 29N85W to 22N92W. Lower wave heights of 3-4 ft are northwest
of the same line, except for slightly lower wave heights of 1-3
ft in the far NW part of the Gulf. No significant convection is
presently being observed over the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure is the main feature
controlling the weather pattern across the basin. It will
gradually shift eastward through Fri. A low pressure system is
forecast to develop over the NW Gulf late Fri, and track eastward
toward the eastern Gulf by late Sat. The attendant cold front is
expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz,
Mexico Sat afternoon, and from near Ft. Myers, FLorida to western
Cuba Sat night. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
on either side of the front. Winds to minimal gale force are
possible in the wake of the front during the upcoming weekend.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected with
this next frontal system. Mostly fresh winds will pulse off the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula at night Wed and Thu as a
trough develops there in the late afternoons and evenings.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning off Colombia.

A cold front is over the northwest Caribbean from central Cuba,
southwestward to 19N84W and to northeast Honduras. Fresh to
strong north to northeast winds are west of the front from the
Yucatan Channel to the Bay Islands of Honduras along with wave
heights of 5-7 ft seas. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas continue in the southeastern and south-central areas
of the the Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas
off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Generally moderate
winds and seas persist elsewhere. Isolated showers are possible
over the west-central Caribbean, and east of the Lesser Antilles
moving westward in the trade wind flow.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall from east central
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early this evening, then
dissipate through late Thu. High pressure building north of the
area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas over the southern Caribbean
through Sat, with winds possibly reaching gale force off Colombia
tonight and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
significant swell over the north-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from just east of Bermuda to 25N74w to central
Cuba. Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows strong to
near- gale force winds east of the front to near 50W and N of 28N.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are west of the front to near 71W
and N of 28N. Lighter northerly winds of 10-15 kt are N of the
front and west of 73W. The buoy observations along with altimeter
satellite data reveal large combined wave heights present to the N
of 29N and between 56W-71W. More details on this area of wave
heights are mentioned above in the Special Features section.
Otherwise, a trough is analyzed from 31N29W to 26N35W. No
significant convection is occurring with this feature. High
pressure of 1021 mb is located in the central Atlantic near
23N49W. High pressure continues to be the main feature in the
eastern and central Atlantic areas. The associated gradient is
allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds south of about and west
of about 29W. Wave heights within this area of moderate to fresh
winds are 7-9 ft in long-period north swell. Gentle to moderate
winds along with wave heights of 5-7 ft are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front
will reach from near 31N58W to east central Cuba this morning,
from near 25N55W to the southern Turks and Caicos Islands by Thu
morning, then reach the far southern waters by early Fri morning.
Minimal gale force winds are expected ahead of the front through
late tonight over the far northern waters. Fresh to strong winds
and rough to very rough seas are expected to continue on either
side of the front through the remainder of the week. Winds will
diminish from W to E through Fri as high pressure builds along 30N
in the wake of the front, although large seas are likely to
linger a little longer.

$$
Aguirre
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