[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds are reaching minimal gale force
near 31N between 77W and 80W off northeast Florida. This is ahead
of a cold front approaching the area from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. The gale-force winds will shift
eastward as far east as 65W through this afternoon before
diminishing below gale-force late today. Seas are expected to
build during this time and peak at 12-16 ft in mixed SW and W
swell by this afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 00N50W. A few showers are observed
within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 15W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from reaches from near Cedar Key, Florida to the
central Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front
over the northeast Gulf, along with rough seas following the front from
the northeast to southwest Gulf. Winds and seas are starting to
diminish over the northwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will shift
southeast of the basin this morning. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas follow the front. Winds and seas will diminish through
tonight as high pressure builds from west to east over the
northern Gulf coast in the wake of the front. Fresh winds will
pulse off the west coast of Yucatan Thu and Fri as a trough
develops there in the evenings. Moist E to SE flow will support
areas of fog Thu and Fri as well. Looking ahead, low pressure will
develop over the northwest Gulf late Fri ahead of a cold front
will move off the Texas coast late early Sat. Strong winds and
rough seas will follow the front as it reaches from central
Florida to the far southwest Gulf by late Sat. Winds to gale-force
are possible over the west-central and southwest Gulf late Sat
and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean this morning. It
currently extends from the central Yucatan Channel to northern
Belize. Farther east, a broad subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The
pressure gradient between the 1022 mb high pressure system and
lower pressures in northern South America result in strong to near
gale- force easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring
off NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas
of 4-7 ft are evident in the north- central and SE Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. No
deep convection is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, the front will stall from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by late Wed, and then will dissipate through late
Thu. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the
front will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas over the southern Caribbean through Sat, with winds
possibly reaching gale force off Colombia Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the gales-force
winds off northeast Florida.

The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 25N and west of 25W,
anchored by 1022 mb high pressure system centered near 25N56W.
Moderate to locally strong westerly winds are found north of 27N
and between 35W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft, with
the highest seas occurring near 31N45W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds persist south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas
in the area described are 6-9 ft.

Farther east, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N27W
to 21N36W. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. In the
far NE Atlantic, a moderate pressure gradient support moderate to
fresh NE winds north of 25N and east of 20W. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere outside of the gales area, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, SW winds are starting increase along a pre-frontal
trough reaching from the Carolinas to southeast Florida. The front
will move off the northeast Florida coast later this morning. The
front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba late today, from
30N55W to central Cuba by late Wed, before stalling and dissipating
along roughly 22N through Thu night into Fri morning. Strong winds
and rough seas will follow the front mainly north of 28N, reaching
gale force along 31N today. Winds will diminish from west to east
through Fri as high pressure builds along 30N in the wake of the
front, although large wave heights will persist a little longer.

$$
Christensen
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