[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Big Bend
region of Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula. Strong to
gale-force SW winds are occurring north of 27N and west of 67W.
Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. The gale-force winds will shift
eastward as far east as 66W through Tue afternoon before
diminishing below gale-force late Tue. Seas are expected to build
during this time and peak at 12-16 ft in mixed SW and W swell by
Tue afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 04N33W and to 04N45W. A few
showers are observed near the ITCZ between 23W and 29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Big Bend area of
Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula. A line of showers is
evident across central Florida and into the SE Gulf waters. A 1020
mb high pressure system over the western Gulf dominates the
remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are found over
much of the Gulf west of the cold front. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force NW winds N of
27N and east of 93W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate to rough seas are prevalent. Seas are peaking around 11
ft near 91N94W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are found east of the cold front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to
exit the basin by Tue morning. Winds have diminished below gale
force and marine conditions will continue to improve Wed and Thu
as a ridge builds across the basin. Strong winds are possible
again Fri night through Sat night as the next cold front enters
the northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient
between the 1023 mb high pressure system and lower pressures in
northern South America result in strong to near gale-force
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW
Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-7
ft are evident in the north-central and SE Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. No deep
convection is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, a cold front currently moving through the Gulf of
Mexico will enter the Yucatan Channel overnight then start to
stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
mid week. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the
northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into tonight. Looking
ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will
support a new round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly
the central Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale force
off Colombia at night Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the gales-force
winds off northeast Florida.

The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 25N and west of 25W,
anchored by 1023 mb high pressure system centered near 25N58W.
Moderate to locally strong westerly winds are found north of 27N
and between 35W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft, with
the highest seas occurring near 31N43W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds persist south of 19N and west of 35W. Seas in
the area described are 6-9 ft.

Farther east, a weak stationary front extends from 31N27W to
21N36W. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. In the far
NE Atlantic, a moderate pressure gradient support moderate to
fresh NE winds north of 24N and east of 20W. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere outside of the gales area, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, 1023 mb high pressure centered near 25N58W will
continue to shift eastward over the next couple of days, ahead of
a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late
tonight into early Tue morning. The front will reach from E of
Bermuda near 31N59W to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from
31N50W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning, before starting to stall
and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu. Strong
to gale force winds and rough seas are expected on either side of
the front tonight and Tue, mainly N of 30N between 65W and 80W.

$$
Delgado
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