[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: SW winds have begun to increase today off
northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas, ahead of a
Gulf of Mexico cold front approaching the area from the west.
Winds will reach minimal gale-force N of 30N between 75W and 80W
tonight, then shift eastward as far E as 66W through Tue afternoon
before diminishing below Gale-force. Seas are expected to build
during this time and peak at 12 to 16 ft in mixed SW and W swell
by Tue afternoon.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force NW to N winds are
occurring across the SW Gulf of Mexico this evening, behind a cold
front that stretches from Pensacola Bay to the central Bay of
Campeche. Winds will diminish below gale force this evening, but
the duration and long fetch of the winds will allow seas to build
as high as 14 ft across the W central and SW Gulf through early
tonight.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02.5N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 02.5N23W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02.5S43W. A line of scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 03N to 04N between 24W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico.

Gale-force NW to N winds prevail S of 24N and within 180 nm
behind a cold front that extends from from Pensacola Bay to the
central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Afternoon altimeter satellite
data and buoy observations across the west central and southwest
Gulf show that seas have already built to 12-14 ft immediately
behind the front, and suggest that gale-force winds likely
accompanied the front across central portions early this
afternoon. Elsewhere behind the front, strong NW to N winds of 20
to 30 kt extend from the Texas coastal waters to the front, with
seas of 7 to 12 ft. N of 25N and ahead of the front fresh to
strong S to SW winds dominate the NE Gulf, where seas are 5 to 9
ft. Narrow lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
across the NE Gulf ahead of the front, north of 27N.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE across the Gulf
tonight, and reach the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel
by Tue morning. Gale-force winds are expected to diminish to
around30 kt later this evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW to
N winds and rough seas will follow the front through Tue morning.
Marine conditions will continue to improve Wed and Thu as a ridge
builds across the basin. Gales are possible again Fri night
through Sat night as low pressure, and an associated cold front,
move E-SE across the Gulf region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Winds across the Caribbean Basin have diminished slightly today,
as an Atlantic high pressure ridge N of the basin has shifted
eastward, ahead of the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong
easterly trade winds continue across south central portions, S of
14N, while fresh to strong SE to S winds across the Gulf of
Honduras and into the Yucatan Channel have diminished to moderate
to fresh. Satellite altimeter data at midday measured peak seas
persisting at 12-13 ft offshore of Colombia, and have likely
subsided to 10-11 ft since that time. Elsewhere seas are 6 t 9 ft
across the central and south central Caribbean and 5 to 8 ft NW
portions. Scattered showers continue across the eastern Caribbean
along 14.5N, along a dying frontal trough extending across the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, a cold front currently moving through the Gulf
of Mexico will enter the Yucatan Channel early Tue then start to
stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
mid week. Large NE swell will continue to move into the northeast
Caribbean through Atlantic passages into tonight. Looking ahead,
high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a new
round of fresh to strong trade winds across mainly the central
Caribbean by mid week, possibly reaching gale-force off Colombia
each night, Wed through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the developing gales expected tonight off northeast Florida.

The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 25N/26N west of 32W,
anchored by 1020 mb high pressure centered near 25N56W. Earlier
buoy observations and scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
southerly flow from the NW Bahamas to offshore northeast Florida,
and moderate trade winds south of the ridge. Buoy and altimeter
data shows large swell persisting across the regional waters, but
has subsided to 7 to 11 ft E of 70W this afternoon. North of the
ridge, fresh to strong westerly winds are N of 29N between 35W and
60W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N25W to
19N41W. Northerly swell with wave heights as high as 8 to 10 ft
extends as far south as 21N, east of 35W, with moderate seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to shift eastward over the next couple of days, ahead of
a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late
tonight into early Tue morning. The front will reach from E of
Bermuda near 31N59W to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from
31N50W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning, before starting to stall
and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu. Strong
to gale-force winds and rough seas are expected on either side of
the front tonight through Tue, mainly N of 30N between 65W and
80W.

$$
Stripling
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